Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by...?

Ukrainian forces have intensified long-range drone and missile strikes on Russian logistics routes to occupied Crimea, including the Melitopol-Chonhar corridor and Kerch Bridge approaches, contributing to acute fuel shortages and supply disruptions in the peninsula through early June 2026. These operations coincide with reported net Ukrainian territorial gains exceeding 100 square kilometers in Ma…

This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Ukraine captures any territory in Crimea by June 30, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET. Territory will will be considered captured if any part of Crimea shaded blue on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. Otherwise, the market will resolve to “No”. The border around Crimea shaded in black on the ISW map will not qualify. Once Ukraine captures territory in Crimea, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market. If Ukraine come…