What are the current odds for: Will the U.S. invade Venezuela by...?

According to OpenFlow's prediction market aggregator, the current implied probability is 100% as of 2026-07-16. Total volume on this market is $14.2M. This market resolves on March 31, 2026.

How does OpenFlow aggregate prediction market odds?

OpenFlow aggregates live order books across on-chain prediction market venues, applies cross-venue price improvement, and displays unified Yes/No implied probabilities. Users trade on their own exchange — OpenFlow routes fills and settles exchange-to-exchange via USDC on Solana.

GeopoliticsTrump PresidencyWorldPolitics

Will the U.S. invade Venezuela by...?

Opens Sep 6, 2025Resolves Mar 31, 2026

Total volume

$14.2M

24h volume

$102

Liquidity

$47K

Open interest

$50K

Resolves

Mar 31, 2026

Comments

1,177

7d volume

$702K

30d volume

$9.5M

1yr volume

$11.4M

Competitive

83.5%

Odds history

#OutcomeChance

Will the U.S. invade Venezuela by December 31, 2026?▼ 1.0% 1m

1.0% spread

Will the U.S. invade Venezuela by December 31, 2025?▼ 0.4% 1d▼ 2.5% 1w▼ 7.6% 1m

0.1% spread

100%

Will the U.S. invade Venezuela by March 31, 2026?▲ 0.1% 1d▼ 0.1% 1w▼ 3.0% 1m

0.1% spread

Will the U.S. invade Venezuela by January 31, 2026?▼ 0.2% 1d▼ 1.1% 1w▼ 2.7% 1m

0.1% spread

Min order: 5 USDCTick: 0.001Maker rewards ≥ 100 USDCMax spread: 3.5%

Order BookDecember 31, 2025

Mid 100.0¢

PriceContractsTotal

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Price change▼ 0.1% 1h▼ 0.4% 1d▼ 2.5% 1w▼ 7.6% 1m

📊 Market context

**US military action against Venezuela peaked with the January 3, 2026 Operation Absolute Resolve, a targeted raid involving airstrikes on air defenses and special forces that captured Nicolás Maduro and his wife for narco-terrorism charges in New York.** This short operation installed Vice President Delcy Rodríguez as interim leader, triggered a state of emergency, and prompted partial US sanctio…

Rules summary

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of Venezuela between September 6 and December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by Venezuela or the United States as of September 6, 2025, 12:00 PM ET, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible sources.