What are the current odds for: Will the US confirm that aliens exist by...?

According to OpenFlow's prediction market aggregator, the current implied probability is 8% as of 2026-07-16. Total volume on this market is $62.9M. This market resolves on December 31, 2026.

How does OpenFlow aggregate prediction market odds?

OpenFlow aggregates live order books across on-chain prediction market venues, applies cross-venue price improvement, and displays unified Yes/No implied probabilities. Users trade on their own exchange — OpenFlow routes fills and settles exchange-to-exchange via USDC on Solana.

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Will the US confirm that aliens exist by...?

Opens Nov 25, 2025Resolves Dec 31, 2026

Total volume

$62.9M

24h volume

$98K

Liquidity

$884K

Open interest

$9.1M

Resolves

Dec 31, 2026

Comments

1,666

7d volume

$774K

30d volume

$3.6M

1yr volume

$39.0M

Competitive

84.7%

Odds history

#OutcomeChance

Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?▲ 1.0% 1w▼ 2.0% 1m

1.0% spread

Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30?▲ 0.3% 1d▼ 0.9% 1m

0.3% spread

Will the US confirm that aliens exist by March 31?

0.1% spread

Will the US confirm that aliens exist by April 30?▼ 0.6% 1w

0.1% spread

Will the US confirm that aliens exist by June 30?▼ 0.6% 1w▼ 1.8% 1m

0.1% spread

Will the US confirm that aliens exist by May 31?▼ 0.5% 1w▼ 2.1% 1m

0.1% spread

Min order: 5 USDCTick: 0.01Maker rewards ≥ 200 USDCMax spread: 3.5%

Order BookDecember 31

Mid 8.0¢

PriceContractsTotal

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Price change▲ 1.0% 1w▼ 2.0% 1m

📊 Market context

Recent UAP file releases under the Trump administration's PURSUE directive, including the Pentagon's third tranche of declassified documents and orb videos on June 12, 2026, have fueled trader interest without delivering confirmation of extraterrestrial life. Officials continue describing cases as unresolved, with no definitive evidence of non-human intelligence or alien technology, aligning with …

Rules summary

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the President of the United States, any member of the Cabinet of the United States, any member of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, or any US federal agency definitively states that extraterrestrial life or technology exists by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of the United States, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.