Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?
The regime's survival through the February 2026 U.S.-Israeli conflict, including the assassination of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei and subsequent transition to Mojtaba Khamenei, combined with sustained IRGC control and suppression of January protests, drives the 90.5% "No" probability. Elite infighting and economic strains persist into June, yet the government has maintained core institutions amid …
Rules summary
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Islamic Republic of Iran’s current ruling regime is overthrown, collapsed, or otherwise ceases to govern by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. This requires a broad consensus of reporting indicating that core structures of the Islamic Republic (e.g. the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, IRGC control under clerical authority) have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different governing system or otherwise lost de facto power over a majority of the population of Iran. T…