Will Russia capture Lyman by...?. Current implied probability: 100% yes. Total volume: $2.8M. Resolves December 31, 2026. Live odds aggregated from Polymarket and Kalshi on OpenFlow.
UkraineGeopoliticsworld affairsPolitics
Will Russia capture Lyman by...?
Opens Resolves
Total volume
$2.8M
24h volume
$2K
Liquidity
$31K
Open interest
$153K
Resolves
Dec 31, 2026
Comments
117
7d volume
$94K
30d volume
$576K
1yr volume
$1.5M
Competitive
99.1%
Odds history
#OutcomeChance
1
Will Russia capture Lyman by December 31, 2026?▲ 2.0% 1d▼ 1.5% 1w▲ 7.5% 1m
1.0% spread
59%
2
Will Russia capture Lyman by September 30, 2026?▼ 1.0% 1d▼ 1.0% 1w
1.0% spread
21%
3
Will Russia capture Lyman by December 31?▼ 0.6% 1d▼ 3.5% 1w▼ 30.3% 1m
0.1% spread
100%
4
Will Russia capture Lyman by November 30?▼ 5.0% 1w▼ 34.4% 1m
0.1% spread
100%
5
Will Russia capture Lyman by March 31, 2026?▲ 1.5% 1d▼ 2.0% 1w▼ 35.0% 1m
0.1% spread
0%
6
Will Russia capture Lyman by January 31, 2026?▼ 1.5% 1d▼ 2.2% 1w▼ 18.4% 1m
0.1% spread
0%
7
Will Russia capture Lyman by February 28, 2026?▼ 0.3% 1d▼ 1.2% 1w▼ 27.1% 1m
0.1% spread
0%
8
Will Russia capture Lyman by June 30, 2026?▼ 1.3% 1d▼ 3.1% 1w▼ 6.0% 1m
1.0% spread
0%
9
Will Russia capture Lyman by April 30, 2026?▼ 0.2% 1d▼ 2.3% 1w▼ 10.9% 1m
0.1% spread
3%
10
Will Russia capture Lyman by May 31, 2026?▼ 0.7% 1d▼ 2.4% 1w▼ 5.7% 1m
Russian forces continue limited infiltration attempts and artillery pressure around Lyman in northern Donetsk Oblast as part of broader operations aimed at approaching Slovyansk and Kramatorsk. Ukrainian defenses have disrupted these moves through drone strikes on logistics, localized counterattacks near Borova that have drawn away Russian units, and fortified positions that prevent confirmed terr…
Rules summary
This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Russia captures the Lyman railroad station located on Vulytsya Pryvokzalʹna by December 31, 2025, at 11:59 PM ET.
The railroad station will be considered captured if any part of the train station icon is shaded red on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. If the area is not shaded red by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to “No”.
If Russia comes into control of this territory as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a…
