Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by...?. Current implied probability: 100% yes. Total volume: $8.0M. Resolves December 31, 2025. Live odds aggregated from Polymarket and Kalshi on OpenFlow.
UkrainePoliticsWorldGeopolitics
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by...?
Opens Resolves
Total volume
$8.0M
24h volume
$74K
Liquidity
$253K
Open interest
$518K
Resolves
Dec 31, 2025
Comments
769
7d volume
$760K
30d volume
$2.9M
1yr volume
$6.0M
Competitive
96.3%
Odds history
#OutcomeChance
1
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026?▼ 1.1% 1d▼ 0.5% 1w▲ 1.2% 1m
1.2% spread
93%
2
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by September 30?▼ 2.0% 1d▲ 2.5% 1w▲ 4.5% 1m
1.0% spread
85%
3
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by August 31?▼ 0.5% 1d▲ 1.0% 1w
3.0% spread
70%
4
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by July 31?▼ 8.0% 1d▼ 9.5% 1w
3.0% spread
27%
5
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by July 19?▼ 1.6% 1d
1.8% spread
3%
6
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by August 31?▼ 0.1% 1d▼ 1.5% 1w▼ 5.1% 1m
0.1% spread
100%
7
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by December 31?▼ 0.1% 1d▼ 1.8% 1w▼ 21.8% 1m
0.1% spread
100%
8
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by October 31?▼ 0.2% 1d▼ 2.8% 1w▼ 6.5% 1m
0.1% spread
100%
9
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by September 30?▼ 0.8% 1w▼ 16.4% 1m
0.1% spread
100%
10
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by November 30?▲ 0.4% 1d▼ 3.1% 1w▼ 27.1% 1m
0.1% spread
100%
11
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by January 31?▼ 0.3% 1d▼ 9.4% 1w▼ 21.9% 1m
0.1% spread
0%
12
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by March 31?▲ 3.0% 1d▼ 4.5% 1w▼ 48.0% 1m
0.1% spread
0%
13
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by February 28?▼ 0.1% 1d▼ 1.8% 1w▼ 33.1% 1m
0.1% spread
0%
14
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by June 30?▼ 4.8% 1d▼ 22.4% 1w▼ 27.8% 1m
1.8% spread
0%
15
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by April 30?▼ 1.0% 1d▼ 6.7% 1w▼ 17.9% 1m
0.1% spread
1%
16
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by May 31?▼ 1.4% 1d▼ 0.8% 1w▼ 8.5% 1m
Russian forces have intensified infiltration and small-unit assaults into Kostyantynivka since late 2025, establishing an estimated 100-250 personnel inside the city by mid-June 2026 and achieving localized tactical gains near the railway station and central districts. This direction remains Moscow’s primary effort in the spring-summer 2026 offensive, supported by elements of multiple combined-arm…
Rules summary
This is a market on the likelihood of Russia capturing Kostyantynivka by a specific date.
