Will Hamas agree to disarm by...?

Recent Cairo talks have produced an effective rejection by Hamas of core disarmament elements in the U.S.-backed Gaza peace plan, stalling movement into phase two of the October 2025 ceasefire. Hamas conditions any discussion of weapons handover or demilitarization on full Israeli withdrawal from Gaza, complete implementation of phase-one terms, and an end to reported violations. The Board of Peac…

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Hamas officially announces it will disarm in the Gaza Strip by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Only credible announcements, for example by the widely acknowledged leadership of Hamas, will qualify. For the purposes of this market, "disarm" refers to a public commitment to relinquish or dismantle its military, whether partially or completely, in the Gaza Strip. Announcements of partial disarmament (e.g., surrendering a class of weapons or agreeing to disarm in stages or a certain region) will qualify as long as…