Which party will win the Senate in 2026?. Current implied probability: 46% yes. Total volume: $3.2M. Resolves November 3, 2026. Live odds aggregated from Polymarket and Kalshi on OpenFlow.
US ElectionPoliticsMidtermsWorld Elections
Which party will win the Senate in 2026?
Opens Resolves
Total volume
$3.2M
24h volume
$2K
Liquidity
$369K
Open interest
$1.7M
Resolves
Nov 3, 2026
Comments
85
7d volume
$46K
30d volume
$424K
1yr volume
$3.2M
Competitive
99.8%
Odds history
#OutcomeChance
1
Will the Republican Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections?▲ 0.5% 1d▲ 1.0% 1w
1.0% spread
55%
2
Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections?▼ 1.0% 1w▲ 3.0% 1m
1.0% spread
46%
3
Will Party A control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections?
100.0% spread
0%
4
Will Party B control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections?
100.0% spread
0%
5
Will Party C control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections?
100.0% spread
0%
6
Will Party D control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections?
100.0% spread
0%
7
Will Party E control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections?
100.0% spread
0%
8
Will Party F control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections?
100.0% spread
0%
9
Will another party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections?
Republicans enter the 2026 Senate cycle holding a 53-47 majority and defending 22 of the 35 seats up on November 3, while Democrats need a net gain of four seats for control. This map structure, combined with several Republican-held seats in states carried by the president in 2024, underpins the 56.5% trader consensus favoring GOP retention despite historical midterm patterns that typically boost …
Rules summary
This market will resolve according to the party that controls the Senate following the 2026 U.S. Senate elections scheduled for November 3, 2026.
Senate control is defined as having more than half of the voting Senate members, or half of the voting Senate members and the Vice Presidency.
If the outcome of this election is ambiguous given the above rules, this market will remain open until the Majority Leader of the US Senate is selected following the 2026 US general election, at which point it will resolve to the party the majority leader is affiliated with at the time of their election to t…
