Which party will win the House in 2026?. Current implied probability: 50% yes. Total volume: $8.5M. Resolves November 3, 2026. Live odds aggregated from Polymarket and Kalshi on OpenFlow.
Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?▲ 1.0% 1d▲ 1.0% 1w▲ 2.0% 1m
1.0% spread
84%
2
Will the Republican Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?▼ 1.0% 1m
1.0% spread
16%
3
Will another party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?
100.0% spread
0%
4
Will Party A control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?
100.0% spread
0%
5
Will Party B control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?
100.0% spread
0%
6
Will Party C control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?
100.0% spread
0%
7
Will Party D control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?
100.0% spread
0%
8
Will Party E control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?
100.0% spread
0%
9
Will Party F control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?
100.0% spread
0%
Min order: 5 USDCTick: 0.01
Order BookOther
Mid 50.0¢
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📊 Market context
Democratic generic ballot leads of 5–6 points in June 2026 polls, aligned with historical midterm patterns under Republican presidential control, have solidified trader consensus around Democratic House gains. Republicans entered the cycle with a narrow majority requiring them to limit losses to just a couple of seats, while Democrats need only a modest net pickup for control. Recent redistricting…
Rules summary
This market will resolve according to the party that controls the House of Representatives following the 2026 U.S. House elections scheduled for November 3, 2026.
House control is defined as having more than half of the voting members of the U.S. House of Representatives.
If the outcome of this election is ambiguous given the above rules, this market will remain open until the Speaker of the House is selected following the 2026 U.S. general election, at which point it will resolve to the party the Speaker is affiliated with at the time of their election to that position. If the elected Speak…
