Which company has best AI model end of July?. Current implied probability: 2% yes. Total volume: $6.6M. Resolves July 31, 2026. Live odds aggregated from Polymarket and Kalshi on OpenFlow.
Best AI CompanyTechAIAI RankingsGPT-5.6
Which company has best AI model end of July?
Opens Resolves
Total volume
$6.6M
24h volume
$230K
Liquidity
$2.4M
Open interest
$635K
Resolves
Jul 31, 2026
Comments
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7d volume
$1.4M
30d volume
$5.9M
1yr volume
$6.1M
Competitive
81.4%
Odds history
#OutcomeChance
1
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of July 2026?▲ 1.4% 1d▲ 13.3% 1w▲ 15.3% 1m
0.4% spread
98%
2
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of July 2026?▼ 0.3% 1d▼ 9.5% 1w▼ 7.6% 1m
0.7% spread
2%
3
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of July 2026?▼ 0.1% 1d▼ 5.0% 1w▼ 6.0% 1m
0.1% spread
0%
4
Will Moonshot have the best AI model at the end of July 2026?▲ 0.1% 1d▲ 0.1% 1w▼ 0.1% 1m
0.1% spread
0%
5
Will Alibaba have the best AI model at the end of July 2026?▼ 0.3% 1m
0.1% spread
0%
6
Will Z.ai have the best AI model at the end of July 2026?▼ 0.5% 1m
0.1% spread
0%
7
Will xAI have the best AI model at the end of July 2026?▼ 0.3% 1w▼ 0.5% 1m
0.1% spread
0%
8
Will DeepSeek have the best AI model at the end of July 2026?▼ 0.4% 1m
0.1% spread
0%
9
Will Mistral have the best AI model at the end of July 2026?▼ 0.6% 1m
0.1% spread
0%
10
Will Meituan have the best AI model at the end of July 2026?▼ 0.1% 1m
0.1% spread
0%
11
Will Microsoft have the best AI model at the end of July 2026?▼ 0.3% 1m
0.1% spread
0%
12
Will Meta have the best AI model at the end of July 2026?▼ 0.1% 1w▼ 0.8% 1m
0.1% spread
0%
13
Will Amazon have the best AI model at the end of July 2026?▼ 0.2% 1m
0.1% spread
0%
14
Will Baidu have the best AI model at the end of July 2026?▼ 0.2% 1m
0.1% spread
0%
15
Will ByteDance have the best AI model at the end of July 2026?▼ 0.3% 1m
0.1% spread
0%
16
Will Company A have the best AI model at the end of July 2026?
100.0% spread
0%
17
Will Company B have the best AI model at the end of July 2026?
100.0% spread
0%
18
Will Company C have the best AI model at the end of July 2026?
100.0% spread
0%
19
Will Company D have the best AI model at the end of July 2026?
100.0% spread
0%
20
Will Company E have the best AI model at the end of July 2026?
100.0% spread
0%
21
Will Company F have the best AI model at the end of July 2026?
100.0% spread
0%
22
Will Company G have the best AI model at the end of July 2026?
100.0% spread
0%
23
Will Company H have the best AI model at the end of July 2026?
100.0% spread
0%
24
Will Company I have the best AI model at the end of July 2026?
100.0% spread
0%
25
Will Company K have the best AI model at the end of July 2026?
100.0% spread
0%
26
Will any other company have the best AI model at the end of July 2026?
Anthropic's recent releases, particularly Claude Opus 4.8 in late May and follow-on variants like Claude Fable 5, have driven the 82% implied probability by topping key leaderboards on metrics such as the Artificial Analysis Intelligence Index and SWE-bench coding performance. These models currently outpace OpenAI's GPT-5.5 series and Google's Gemini 3.5 Flash or 3.1 Pro in overall intelligence, a…
Rules summary
This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena rank based off the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on July 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with the style control off will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any u…
