TrumpIranU.S. x IranGeopolitics

US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by...?

Opens Resolves
Total volume
$28.5M
24h volume
$12K
Liquidity
$160K
Open interest
$627K
Resolves
Dec 31, 2026
Comments
198
7d volume
$145K
30d volume
$569K
1yr volume
$2.3M
Competitive
87.1%
Odds history
#OutcomeChance
1US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31?
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? 2.0% 1m
1.0% spread
12%
2US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by September 30?
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by September 30? 0.5% 1w
1.0% spread
8%
3US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by July 31?
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by July 31? 0.1% 1d 0.1% 1w 2.5% 1m
0.3% spread
1%
4US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31?
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? 0.1% 1d 1.9% 1w 8.3% 1m
0.1% spread
0%
5US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by April 30?
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by April 30? 0.2% 1d 1.1% 1w
0.1% spread
0%
6US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30?
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30? 0.1% 1d 0.4% 1w 3.6% 1m
0.1% spread
0%
7US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by July 31?
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by July 31?
100.0% spread
0%
Min order: 5 USDCTick: 0.001Maker rewards ≥ 200 USDCMax spread: 3.5%
Order BookMay 31
Mid 0.1¢
PriceContractsTotal
Loading…
Price change 0.1% 1h 0.1% 1d 1.9% 1w 8.3% 1m
📊 Market context

**Recent US-Iran framework agreement centers nuclear talks on Iran's ~440 kg stockpile of 60% enriched uranium.** In mid-June 2026, Washington and Tehran signed (or prepared to sign) a memorandum extending a ceasefire, reopening the Strait of Hormuz, and launching 60-day negotiations on Tehran's nuclear program, including enrichment limits, inspections, and stockpile disposition. US officials have…

Rules summary

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the US government or military officially announces or confirms that it has gained possession of any quantity of enriched uranium previously controlled by Iran by May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. “Possession” means that the United States has actual physical custody or control of the enriched uranium, whether held within U.S. territory or elsewhere. Announcements of deals, agreements, commitments, or plans under which the United States would acquire possession of Iranian enriched uranium at a later time will not qualify…

Buy Yes · US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31?
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