Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 7?

**Iran’s IRGC re-declared the Strait of Hormuz closed to commercial traffic on June 20, 2026, in response to Israeli strikes in Lebanon and perceived U.S. non-compliance with a fragile interim ceasefire.** This followed a February 28 closure that has kept traffic well below pre-war norms for nearly four months, with daily transits often limited to a fraction of the typical 100+ vessels and heavy r…

This market will resolve to “Yes” if IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz equal to or above 60 for any date between market creation and July 7, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. Daily transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered. This market will resolve as soon as IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls equal to or above the specified level, or once data has been publishe…