Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?

Recent U.S.-Iran diplomatic agreement has enabled initial reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, with vessel transits resuming at a trickle after months of near-zero throughput amid conflict-related closures and attacks. Market-implied odds of 90.5% for normalized traffic by year-end reflect trader consensus that logistical hurdles—such as clearing a backlog exceeding 500 vessels, mine risks, and elev…

This market will resolve to “Yes” if IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz equal to or above 60 for any date between market creation and December 31, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. Daily transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered. This market will resolve as soon as IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls equal to or above the specified level, or once data has been pub…