Republican Senate seats after the 2026 midterm elections?. Current implied probability: 23% yes. Total volume: $2.7M. Resolves November 3, 2026. Live odds aggregated from Polymarket and Kalshi on OpenFlow.
CongressPoliticsElectionsUS Election
Republican Senate seats after the 2026 midterm elections?
Opens Resolves
Total volume
$2.7M
24h volume
$2K
Liquidity
$315K
Open interest
$127K
Resolves
Nov 3, 2026
Comments
11
7d volume
$7K
30d volume
$51K
1yr volume
$538K
Competitive
93.0%
Odds history
#OutcomeChance
1
Will the Republican Party hold 47 or fewer Senate seats after the 2026 midterm elections?▼ 5.0% 1m
1.0% spread
23%
2
Will the Republican Party hold exactly 51 Senate seats after the 2026 midterm elections?▲ 2.0% 1w
1.0% spread
18%
3
Will the Republican Party hold exactly 49 Senate seats after the 2026 midterm elections?▼ 1.0% 1w
1.0% spread
15%
4
Will the Republican Party hold exactly 50 Senate seats after the 2026 midterm elections?▲ 2.0% 1w
1.0% spread
16%
5
Will the Republican Party hold exactly 48 Senate seats after the 2026 midterm elections?▲ 0.5% 1m
1.0% spread
11%
6
Will the Republican Party hold exactly 52 Senate seats after the 2026 midterm elections?▼ 1.0% 1d▼ 0.4% 1w▼ 0.5% 1m
1.4% spread
9%
7
Will the Republican Party hold exactly 53 Senate seats after the 2026 midterm elections?▲ 0.1% 1w▲ 0.1% 1m
0.1% spread
4%
8
Will the Republican Party hold exactly 54 Senate seats after the 2026 midterm elections?▲ 0.1% 1w▲ 0.1% 1m
0.1% spread
2%
9
Will the Republican Party hold exactly 55 Senate seats after the 2026 midterm elections?▲ 0.3% 1m
0.1% spread
1%
10
Will the Republican Party hold 57 or more Senate seats after the 2026 midterm elections?▼ 0.1% 1d▲ 0.1% 1w▼ 0.3% 1m
0.2% spread
1%
11
Will the Republican Party hold exactly 56 Senate seats after the 2026 midterm elections?▲ 0.4% 1m
Republicans enter the 2026 cycle defending 22 of the 35 Senate seats up for election while holding a 53-47 majority, creating a structurally favorable map that limits Democratic paths to a net gain of four seats needed for control. Recent retirements, open seats in Michigan and Georgia, and competitive contests in states such as Maine, North Carolina, and Alaska remain central variables, alongside…
Rules summary
The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the number of seats held by the Republican Party in the US Senate as a result of the 2026 midterm elections.
This market will resolve based on the results of all Senate elections, including special elections, that are scheduled to occur in November 2026 as of October 31, 2026. If a required runoff for any such election could change the market’s outcome, the market will remain open until that runoff is conclusively called by this market’s resolution sources.
If a Senate seat is vaca…
