What are the current odds for: OpenAI IPO Closing Market Cap

According to OpenFlow's prediction market aggregator, the current implied probability is 1% as of 2026-07-16. Total volume on this market is $1.9M. This market resolves on December 31, 2026.

How does OpenFlow aggregate prediction market odds?

OpenFlow aggregates live order books across on-chain prediction market venues, applies cross-venue price improvement, and displays unified Yes/No implied probabilities. Users trade on their own exchange — OpenFlow routes fills and settles exchange-to-exchange via USDC on Solana.

OpenAI IPOBig TechOpenAIIPOIPOs

OpenAI IPO Closing Market Cap

Opens Sep 23, 2025Resolves Dec 31, 2026

Total volume

$1.9M

24h volume

$710

Liquidity

$71K

Open interest

$69K

Resolves

Dec 31, 2026

Comments

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7d volume

$13K

30d volume

$108K

1yr volume

$1.9M

Competitive

90.7%

Odds history

#OutcomeChance

Will OpenAI not IPO by December 31, 2026?▲ 0.5% 1d▲ 4.0% 1w▲ 27.5% 1m

2.0% spread

80%

Will OpenAI’s market cap be between $1T and $1.25T at market close on IPO day?▲ 0.3% 1d▲ 0.1% 1w▼ 6.1% 1m

2.0% spread

Will OpenAI’s market cap be between $750B and $1T at market close on IPO day?▲ 1.3% 1d▲ 1.0% 1w▼ 3.9% 1m

3.2% spread

Will OpenAI’s market cap be $1.5T or greater at market close on IPO day?▼ 0.1% 1d▼ 1.6% 1w▼ 16.4% 1m

1.4% spread

Will OpenAI’s market cap be between $1.25T and $1.5T at market close on IPO day?▲ 0.4% 1w▼ 6.6% 1m

0.7% spread

Will OpenAI’s market cap be less than $500B at market close on IPO day?▲ 0.3% 1d▼ 0.1% 1w▼ 0.9% 1m

0.8% spread

Will OpenAI’s market cap be between $500B and $750B at market close on IPO day?▼ 0.2% 1d▼ 0.4% 1w▼ 2.5% 1m

0.2% spread

Min order: 5 USDCTick: 0.001Maker rewards ≥ 100 USDCMax spread: 4.5%

Order Book<500B

Mid 0.9¢

PriceContractsTotal

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Price change▲ 0.3% 1d▼ 0.1% 1w▼ 0.9% 1m

📊 Market context

**OpenAI’s recent confidential S-1 filing with the SEC on June 8, 2026, is the primary catalyst shaping market-implied odds.** Traders assign a 53.5% probability to no IPO by year-end 2026 because the company stated it “has not decided on timing yet” and prefers remaining private for certain initiatives, consistent with typical 60- to 90-day SEC review plus roadshow timelines that could push listi…

Rules summary

This market will resolve based on OpenAI's market capitalization at the closing price on its first day of trading. If no IPO occurs by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO by December 31, 2026". Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day. If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. Resolution will be …