Next French Presidential Election. Current implied probability: 32% yes. Total volume: $114.4M. Resolves April 30, 2027. Live odds aggregated from Polymarket and Kalshi on OpenFlow.
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Next French Presidential Election
Opens Resolves
Total volume
$114.4M
24h volume
$1.4M
Liquidity
$10.2M
Open interest
$831K
Resolves
Apr 30, 2027
Comments
656
7d volume
$3.7M
30d volume
$13.7M
1yr volume
$114.4M
Competitive
96.9%
Odds history
#OutcomeChance
1
Will Marine Le Pen win the 2027 French presidential election?▲ 1.4% 1d▲ 5.2% 1w▲ 24.6% 1m
0.3% spread
32%
2
Will Édouard Philippe win the 2027 French presidential election?▲ 7.0% 1m
1.0% spread
27%
3
Will Jean-Luc Mélenchon win the 2027 French presidential election?▲ 1.0% 1w
1.0% spread
12%
4
Will Jordan Bardella win the 2027 French presidential election?▼ 0.4% 1d▼ 1.7% 1w▼ 21.9% 1m
0.1% spread
4%
5
Will Bruno Retailleau win the 2027 French presidential election?▼ 0.1% 1d▼ 0.7% 1w▲ 1.4% 1m
0.2% spread
3%
6
Will François Hollande win the 2027 French presidential election?▲ 0.1% 1d▲ 0.7% 1w▼ 0.1% 1m
0.2% spread
3%
7
Will Gabriel Attal win the 2027 French presidential election?▼ 1.0% 1m
0.1% spread
3%
8
Will Dominique de Villepin win the 2027 French presidential election?▲ 0.2% 1d▼ 0.4% 1w▼ 1.9% 1m
0.1% spread
2%
9
Will Raphaël Glucksmann win the 2027 French presidential election?▼ 0.3% 1m
0.1% spread
2%
10
Will David Lisnard win the 2027 French presidential election?▼ 0.1% 1w▼ 0.8% 1m
0.2% spread
2%
11
Will Sarah Knafo win the 2027 French presidential election?▼ 0.1% 1w
0.1% spread
1%
12
Will Sébastien Lecornu win the 2027 French presidential election?▲ 0.1% 1d▲ 0.1% 1w▲ 0.1% 1m
0.1% spread
1%
13
Will Éric Zemmour win the 2027 French presidential election?▼ 0.1% 1d▼ 0.1% 1w▼ 0.1% 1m
0.1% spread
1%
14
Will Bernard Cazeneuve win the 2027 French presidential election?▼ 0.1% 1d▼ 0.2% 1w▼ 0.2% 1m
0.1% spread
1%
15
Will Karim Bouamrane win the 2027 French presidential election?▼ 0.1% 1d
0.1% spread
1%
16
Will Clémence Guetté win the 2027 French presidential election?▼ 0.1% 1w▼ 0.1% 1m
0.2% spread
0%
17
Will Laurent Wauquiez win the 2027 French presidential election?▼ 0.4% 1w▼ 0.4% 1m
0.1% spread
0%
18
Will Juan Branco win the 2027 French presidential election?▼ 0.3% 1w▼ 0.3% 1m
0.1% spread
0%
19
Will Ségolène Royal win the 2027 French presidential election?▼ 0.4% 1w▼ 0.3% 1m
0.1% spread
0%
20
Will Gérald Darmanin win the 2027 French presidential election?▼ 0.3% 1w▼ 0.4% 1m
0.1% spread
0%
21
Will Nicolas Dupont-Aignan win the 2027 French presidential election?▼ 0.1% 1d▼ 0.4% 1w▼ 0.4% 1m
0.2% spread
0%
22
Will Valérie Pécresse win the 2027 French presidential election?▼ 0.1% 1d▼ 0.4% 1w▼ 0.4% 1m
0.1% spread
0%
23
Will Jean Castex win the 2027 French presidential election?▼ 0.4% 1w▼ 0.4% 1m
0.1% spread
0%
24
Will François Ruffin win the 2027 French presidential election?▼ 0.1% 1d▼ 0.4% 1w▼ 0.4% 1m
0.1% spread
0%
25
Will Marine Tondelier win the 2027 French presidential election?▼ 0.4% 1w▼ 0.4% 1m
0.1% spread
0%
26
Will Olivier Faure win the 2027 French presidential election?▼ 0.4% 1w▼ 0.4% 1m
0.1% spread
0%
27
Will Clémentine Autain win the 2027 French presidential election?▼ 0.4% 1w▼ 0.4% 1m
0.1% spread
0%
28
Will Michel Barnier win the 2027 French presidential election?▼ 0.4% 1w▼ 0.5% 1m
0.1% spread
0%
29
Will François Bayrou win the 2027 French presidential election?▼ 0.4% 1w▼ 0.4% 1m
0.1% spread
0%
30
Will Yaël Braun-Pivet win the 2027 French presidential election?▼ 0.4% 1w▼ 0.4% 1m
0.1% spread
0%
31
Will Fabien Roussel win the 2027 French presidential election?▼ 0.1% 1d▼ 0.5% 1w▼ 0.5% 1m
0.1% spread
0%
32
Will François Asselineau win the 2027 French presidential election?▼ 0.1% 1d▼ 0.5% 1w▼ 0.5% 1m
0.1% spread
0%
33
Will Élisabeth Borne win the 2027 French presidential election?▼ 0.5% 1w▼ 0.5% 1m
0.1% spread
0%
34
Will Carole Delga win the 2027 French presidential election?▼ 0.1% 1d▼ 0.5% 1w▼ 0.5% 1m
0.1% spread
0%
35
Will Manuel Bompard win the 2027 French presidential election?▼ 0.1% 1d▼ 0.5% 1w▼ 0.5% 1m
0.1% spread
0%
36
Will Lucie Castets win the 2027 French presidential election?
0.1% spread
0%
37
Will François Baroin win the 2027 French presidential election?▼ 0.1% 1d
0.1% spread
0%
38
Will Xavier Bertrand win the 2027 French presidential election?▼ 0.1% 1d▼ 0.5% 1w▼ 0.5% 1m
0.1% spread
0%
39
Will Mathilde Panot win the 2027 French presidential election?▼ 0.1% 1d▼ 0.5% 1w▼ 0.5% 1m
0.1% spread
0%
40
Will Yannick Jadot win the 2027 French presidential election?▼ 0.5% 1d
0.1% spread
0%
41
Will Marion Maréchal win the 2027 French presidential election?▼ 0.1% 1d
0.1% spread
0%
42
Will another person win the 2027 French presidential election?
Recent polls show Jordan Bardella of the National Rally leading first-round voting intentions near 30 percent ahead of the April 2027 contest, with Édouard Philippe and Jean-Luc Mélenchon clustered behind, reflecting RN strength on immigration and security alongside a fragmented center and divided left. Marine Le Pen’s pending appeal on her embezzlement conviction and potential office ban have shi…
Rules summary
The next French presidential election is currently expected to be held around April 2027. This market pertains to the outcome of the next French presidential election, regardless of whether it follows the scheduled end of the current term or is held earlier.
The President of France is elected via a two-round system; a candidate must secure over 50% of the vote to win outright in the first round. If no candidate achieves this, the top two contenders advance to a runoff.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
This market includes any potential second rou…
