What are the current odds for: Netanyahu out by...?

According to OpenFlow's prediction market aggregator, the current implied probability is 36% as of 2026-07-16. Total volume on this market is $123.5M. This market resolves on December 31, 2026.

How does OpenFlow aggregate prediction market odds?

OpenFlow aggregates live order books across on-chain prediction market venues, applies cross-venue price improvement, and displays unified Yes/No implied probabilities. Users trade on their own exchange — OpenFlow routes fills and settles exchange-to-exchange via USDC on Solana.

Netanyahu outWorldGeopoliticsMiddle EastIsrael

Netanyahu out by...?

Opens Jul 24, 2025Resolves Dec 31, 2026

Total volume

$123.5M

24h volume

$3K

Liquidity

$111K

Open interest

$458K

Resolves

Dec 31, 2026

Comments

7d volume

$45K

30d volume

$436K

1yr volume

$2.0M

Competitive

97.9%

Odds history

#OutcomeChance

Netanyahu out by end of 2026?▼ 1.0% 1d▲ 4.5% 1w▼ 27.5% 1m

1.0% spread

36%

Netanyahu out by July 31?▼ 0.1% 1d▼ 0.4% 1w▼ 5.7% 1m

0.1% spread

Netanyahu out by March 31?▼ 0.5% 1w▼ 7.6% 1m

0.1% spread

Netanyahu out by June 30?▼ 0.4% 1w▼ 2.9% 1m

0.1% spread

Netanyahu out by April 30?▼ 0.1% 1d▼ 0.5% 1w▼ 2.2% 1m

0.1% spread

Netanyahu out by May 31?▼ 0.3% 1w▼ 2.1% 1m

0.1% spread

Min order: 5 USDCTick: 0.01Maker rewards ≥ 200 USDCMax spread: 3.5%

Order BookDecember 31

Mid 36.0¢

PriceContractsTotal

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Price change▼ 1.0% 1d▲ 4.5% 1w▼ 27.5% 1m

📊 Market context

Netanyahu remains Israel's prime minister ahead of legislative elections scheduled by late October 2026, with the Knesset advancing dissolution proceedings amid coalition strains over ultra-Orthodox military exemptions and budget issues. Recent polls show Likud as the largest single party, though opposition blocs led by figures such as Naftali Bennett and Gadi Eisenkot have narrowed or overtaken h…

Rules summary

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Benjamin Netanyahu announces that he will resign as Prime Minister of Israel, or otherwise steps down from/is removed from this position by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Note that an announcement of Benjamin Netanyahu's resignation or removal before the resolution date will suffice to resolve this market to "Yes" regardless of if/when he actually steps down. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of the State of Israel, however a consensus of credible re…