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Miguel Díaz-Canel out as leader of Cuba by...?

Opens Resolves
Total volume
$2.1M
24h volume
$6K
Liquidity
$41K
Open interest
$119K
Resolves
Jun 30, 2026
Comments
74
7d volume
$23K
30d volume
$159K
1yr volume
$533K
Competitive
97.7%
Odds history
#OutcomeChance
1Miguel Díaz-Canel out as leader of Cuba by December 31?
Miguel Díaz-Canel out as leader of Cuba by December 31? 3.5% 1d 1.0% 1w 22.5% 1m
1.0% spread
36%
2Miguel Díaz-Canel out as leader of Cuba by June 30?
Miguel Díaz-Canel out as leader of Cuba by June 30? 0.2% 1d 0.7% 1w 15.3% 1m
0.3% spread
0%
3Miguel Díaz-Canel out as leader of Cuba by March 31?
Miguel Díaz-Canel out as leader of Cuba by March 31?
0.1% spread
0%
Min order: 5 USDCTick: 0.01Maker rewards ≥ 100 USDCMax spread: 3.5%
Order BookDecember 31
Mid 36.0¢
PriceContractsTotal
Loading…
Price change 0.5% 1h 3.5% 1d 1.0% 1w 22.5% 1m
📊 Market context

Díaz-Canel continues to hold both the Cuban presidency and Communist Party first secretary role amid sustained external pressure from the U.S. administration for leadership change, including reported preconditions in bilateral talks earlier this year and recent sanctions targeting him personally. Cuban officials have repeatedly rejected any removal of the president as a negotiation condition, with…

Rules summary

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Cuba’s current leader, Miguel Díaz-Canel, is removed from power for any length of time by the listed date, ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, Díaz-Canel will be considered to be removed from power if he resigns, is detained, or otherwise ceases to hold (or is publicly reported to be unable to perform the duties of) the office of First Secretary of the Communist Party of Cuba, which is widely regarded as Cuba’s top political post, within this market’s timeframe. The primary resolution source for this market …

Buy Yes · Miguel Díaz-Canel out as leader of Cuba by December 31?
You're paying
$USDC
Implied chance35%
Shares0
To win
Bid 34.0¢Ask 35.0¢Spread 1.0¢