Measles cases in U.S. in 2026?. Current implied probability: 17% yes. Total volume: $7.8M. Resolves December 31, 2026. Live odds aggregated from Polymarket and Kalshi on OpenFlow.
measlesPandemicsScienceMeaslesRewards 20, 4.5, 50
Measles cases in U.S. in 2026?
Opens Resolves
Total volume
$7.8M
24h volume
$1K
Liquidity
$22K
Open interest
$69K
Resolves
Dec 31, 2026
Comments
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7d volume
$109K
30d volume
$210K
1yr volume
$7.3M
Competitive
98.7%
Odds history
#OutcomeChance
1
Will there be at least 1000 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026?▲ 0.1% 1d▲ 0.4% 1w▲ 1.5% 1m
0.1% spread
100%
2
Will there be at least 2000 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026?▲ 0.2% 1d▲ 0.7% 1w▲ 2.1% 1m
0.1% spread
100%
3
Will there be at least 500 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026?▲ 0.1% 1d▲ 0.5% 1w▲ 13.2% 1m
0.1% spread
100%
4
Will there be at least 3000 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026?▼ 1.0% 1d▲ 12.0% 1w▲ 4.5% 1m
3.0% spread
88%
5
Will there be at least 3500 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026?▲ 1.0% 1d▲ 1.5% 1w
3.0% spread
63%
6
Will there be at least 4000 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026?▲ 12.0% 1w▲ 7.5% 1m
2.0% spread
35%
7
Will there be at least 5000 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026?▼ 3.0% 1m
1.0% spread
17%
8
Will there be at least 7500 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026?▲ 3.5% 1w▼ 1.5% 1m
2.0% spread
10%
9
Will there be at least 10000 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026?▼ 0.1% 1d▲ 0.1% 1w▼ 2.3% 1m
0.5% spread
6%
10
Will there be at least 12500 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026?▼ 3.0% 1m
As of mid-June 2026, the CDC has confirmed 2,073 measles cases nationwide, already approaching the full-year 2025 total of 2,288 and reflecting sustained community transmission primarily among unvaccinated or unknown-status individuals (93% of cases). Major ongoing outbreaks, including those originating in 2025 in South Carolina and Utah, account for most infections, with 30 new outbreaks reported…
Rules summary
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there have been the specified amount or more confirmed cases of Measles (Rubeola) in humans in the territory of the United States of America in 2026 according to the CDC case counter between January 1, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market will be the CDC Measles (Rubeola) counter (see: https://www.cdc.gov/measles/data-research/index.html) at the resolution time. If the counter becomes unavailable, another credible source will be used.
Note: Only cases repor…
