Israel x Hamas Ceasefire Phase II by...?. Current implied probability: 100% yes. Total volume: $2.8M. Resolves December 31, 2026. Live odds aggregated from Polymarket and Kalshi on OpenFlow.
PoliticsGazaGeopoliticsIsrael
Israel x Hamas Ceasefire Phase II by...?
Opens Resolves
Total volume
$2.8M
24h volume
$40
Liquidity
$2K
Open interest
$12K
Resolves
Dec 31, 2026
Comments
355
7d volume
$485K
30d volume
$1.5M
1yr volume
$1.7M
Competitive
95.0%
Odds history
#OutcomeChance
1
Israel x Hamas Ceasefire Phase II by December 31?▲ 0.5% 1d▼ 6.0% 1w
2.0% spread
28%
2
Israel x Hamas Ceasefire Phase II by July 31?▼ 9.3% 1d▲ 5.3% 1w
11.8% spread
8%
3
Israel x Hamas Ceasefire Phase II by October 31?▼ 0.1% 1d▼ 2.5% 1w
0.6% spread
100%
4
Israel x Hamas Ceasefire Phase II by December 31?▼ 2.9% 1w▼ 2.5% 1m
0.1% spread
100%
5
Israel x Hamas Ceasefire Phase II by March 31?▼ 2.5% 1d▼ 10.0% 1w▼ 38.5% 1m
0.1% spread
0%
6
Israel x Hamas Ceasefire Phase II by November 30?▲ 0.1% 1d▼ 0.1% 1w▼ 17.8% 1m
0.1% spread
100%
7
Israel x Hamas Ceasefire Phase II by January 31?▼ 1.8% 1d▼ 5.3% 1w▼ 11.9% 1m
0.1% spread
0%
8
Israel x Hamas Ceasefire Phase II by February 28?
100.0% spread
0%
9
Israel x Hamas Ceasefire Phase II by June 30?▼ 0.8% 1d▼ 2.1% 1w▼ 8.0% 1m
**Recent Cairo talks among Palestinian factions, Egypt, Qatar, and Turkey in early June 2026 represent the most recent diplomatic effort to advance Phase II of the US-brokered Gaza ceasefire plan.** Phase II focuses on Hamas disarmament, establishment of a technocratic Palestinian administration (National Committee for the Administration of Gaza), Israeli withdrawal beyond the current “Yellow Line…
Rules summary
On October 8, an agreement on an initial ceasefire (Phase 1) was announced, constituting a halt in fighting, a partial Israeli pullback to a “yellow line,” prisoner swaps, expanded aid, and the release of hostages. A second phase of the deal, yet to be negotiated, is expected to address further Israeli withdrawal, Hamas’s disarmament, and the establishment of new security and governance arrangements in Gaza.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if an official agreement for the second phase of the Israel–Hamas ceasefire, defined as a publicly announced mutual agreement, is reached between Israel …
