Israel x Hamas ceasefire cancelled by...?. Current implied probability: 100% yes. Total volume: $4.1M. Resolves December 31, 2026. Live odds aggregated from Polymarket and Kalshi on OpenFlow.
IsraelGeopoliticsWorldMiddle East
Israel x Hamas ceasefire cancelled by...?
Opens Resolves
Total volume
$4.1M
24h volume
$0
Liquidity
$267
Open interest
$2K
Resolves
Dec 31, 2026
Comments
979
7d volume
$1.6M
30d volume
$3.2M
1yr volume
$3.8M
Competitive
66.6%
Odds history
#OutcomeChance
1
Israel x Hamas ceasefire cancelled by December 31?▼ 6.0% 1d▲ 17.0% 1w
33.0% spread
32%
2
Israel x Hamas ceasefire cancelled by October 31?▼ 0.5% 1d▼ 3.0% 1w
0.2% spread
100%
3
Israel x Hamas ceasefire cancelled by December 31?▼ 0.1% 1d▼ 1.2% 1w▼ 7.0% 1m
0.1% spread
100%
4
Israel x Hamas ceasefire cancelled by November 30?▼ 0.1% 1d▼ 3.9% 1w▼ 14.9% 1m
0.1% spread
100%
5
Israel x Hamas ceasefire cancelled by November 7?▼ 0.5% 1d▼ 4.4% 1w
0.1% spread
100%
6
Israel x Hamas ceasefire cancelled by March 31, 2026?▼ 10.0% 1w▼ 14.5% 1m
0.1% spread
0%
7
Israel x Hamas ceasefire cancelled by January 31?
100.0% spread
0%
8
Israel x Hamas ceasefire cancelled by June 30?▼ 0.3% 1d▼ 0.9% 1w▼ 10.4% 1m
The fragile October 2025 Israel-Hamas ceasefire under the U.S.-brokered framework remains formally in effect but faces repeated strains from mutual violations and stalled implementation of Phase II. Israel maintains control of roughly 53-59% of Gaza territory along the “yellow line” while conducting near-daily strikes that have killed hundreds of Palestinians since the truce began, citing threats …
Rules summary
On October 9, Israel and Hamas signed a deal implementing a ceasefire: https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/israel-hamas-agree-gaza-ceasefire-return-hostages-2025-10-09/
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a either Israel or Hamas announce the cancellation of the ongoing ceasefire, or if a consensus of credible reporting confirms that the ceasefire is no longer in effect, by October 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".
Announcements that one side or another violated the ongoing ceasefire will not be enough to resolve this market to "Yes"; only a definitive…
