What are the current odds for: Iran leadership change by...?

According to OpenFlow's prediction market aggregator, the current implied probability is 0% as of 2026-07-16. Total volume on this market is $19.7M. This market resolves on December 31, 2026.

How does OpenFlow aggregate prediction market odds?

OpenFlow aggregates live order books across on-chain prediction market venues, applies cross-venue price improvement, and displays unified Yes/No implied probabilities. Users trade on their own exchange — OpenFlow routes fills and settles exchange-to-exchange via USDC on Solana.

MojtabaayatollahPoliticsIran Regime

Iran leadership change by...?

Opens Mar 9, 2026Resolves Dec 31, 2026

Total volume

$19.7M

24h volume

$25K

Liquidity

$184K

Open interest

$821K

Resolves

Dec 31, 2026

Comments

1,078

7d volume

$392K

30d volume

$741K

1yr volume

$3.7M

Competitive

96.3%

Odds history

#OutcomeChance

Iran leadership change by June 30, 2027?▲ 4.0% 1w

1.0% spread

31%

Iran leadership change by December 31?▲ 4.0% 1w▲ 4.0% 1m

1.0% spread

21%

Iran leadership change by September 30?▼ 1.0% 1d▲ 2.5% 1w

1.0% spread

12%

Iran leadership change by July 31?▼ 0.4% 1w

0.5% spread

Iran leadership change by March 31?

0.1% spread

Iran leadership change by March 13?

0.1% spread

Iran leadership change by April 30?▼ 0.5% 1d▼ 5.0% 1w▼ 13.5% 1m

0.1% spread

Iran leadership change by May 31?▼ 0.7% 1d▼ 2.6% 1w▼ 6.5% 1m

0.1% spread

Iran leadership change by June 30?▼ 0.2% 1d▼ 0.9% 1w▼ 5.5% 1m

0.1% spread

Min order: 5 USDCTick: 0.001Maker rewards ≥ 200 USDCMax spread: 4.5%

Order BookMarch 31

Mid 0.1¢

PriceContractsTotal

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📊 Market context

**Ali Khamenei’s assassination on February 28, 2026, in U.S.-Israeli strikes triggered Iran’s first supreme leader succession since 1989.** The Assembly of Experts elected his son Mojtaba Khamenei on March 8–9 via a temporary three-member council (including President Masoud Pezeshkian) under Article 111 of the constitution, establishing continuity amid active conflict. This rapid clerical and IR…

Rules summary

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Supreme Leader of Iran, Mojtaba Khamenei, ceases to be the de facto leader of Iran at any point between market creation and the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Mojtaba Khamenei will be considered to no longer be the de facto leader of Iran if he is removed from power, is detained, or otherwise loses his position or is prevented from acting as the de facto leader of Iran within this market's timeframe. An official announcement of Mojtaba Khamenei’s resignation or removal will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of w…