How many Fed rate cuts in 2026?. Current implied probability: 83% yes. Total volume: $43.0M. Resolves December 31, 2026. Live odds aggregated from Polymarket and Kalshi on OpenFlow.
BusinessFed RatesJerome PowellEconomic Policy
How many Fed rate cuts in 2026?
Opens Resolves
Total volume
$43.0M
24h volume
$529K
Liquidity
$3.0M
Open interest
$1.7M
Resolves
Dec 31, 2026
Comments
105
7d volume
$1.5M
30d volume
$7.4M
1yr volume
$43.0M
Competitive
89.9%
Odds history
#OutcomeChance
1
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?▲ 2.3% 1d▲ 5.1% 1w▲ 13.7% 1m
0.1% spread
83%
2
Will 1 Fed rate cut happen in 2026?▼ 2.0% 1d▼ 3.0% 1w▼ 8.0% 1m
1.0% spread
13%
3
Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?▼ 0.5% 1d▼ 0.5% 1w▼ 2.9% 1m
0.2% spread
2%
4
Will 3 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?▼ 0.1% 1d▼ 0.7% 1w▼ 0.6% 1m
0.1% spread
1%
5
Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?▲ 0.3% 1d▲ 0.1% 1w▲ 0.3% 1m
0.3% spread
1%
6
Will 4 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?▼ 0.1% 1d▼ 0.1% 1w▼ 0.4% 1m
0.1% spread
0%
7
Will 5 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?▼ 0.1% 1m
0.1% spread
0%
8
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?▼ 0.2% 1m
0.1% spread
0%
9
Will 7 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?▼ 0.1% 1w▼ 0.2% 1m
0.1% spread
0%
10
Will 8 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?▼ 0.1% 1w▼ 0.2% 1m
0.1% spread
0%
11
Will 9 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?▼ 0.1% 1w▼ 0.1% 1m
0.1% spread
0%
12
Will 10 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?▼ 0.1% 1w▼ 0.1% 1m
Elevated inflation and a resilient labor market have driven trader consensus toward zero Federal Reserve rate cuts in 2026 at 79.8% implied probability. The June FOMC meeting under new Chair Kevin Warsh held the fed funds target at 3.50%-3.75%, with updated projections lifting 2026 PCE inflation to 3.6% and showing nine officials favoring at least one hike by year-end. A blowout May jobs report re…
Rules summary
This market will resolve according to the exact amount of cuts of 25 basis points in 2026 by the Fed (including any cuts made during the December meeting).
Emergency rate cuts outside of scheduled FOMC meetings will also count toward the total number of cuts in 2026. This market will remain open until December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, to account for any such emergency actions.
For example, if the Fed cuts rates by 50 bps after a meeting, it would be considered 2 cuts (of 25 bps each).
This market will resolve early to "No" if the specified number of cuts becomes impossible — i.e., if more cut…
