What are the current odds for: Fed rate cut by...?

According to OpenFlow's prediction market aggregator, the current implied probability is 1% as of 2026-07-16. Total volume on this market is $2.9M. This market resolves on June 17, 2026.

How does OpenFlow aggregate prediction market odds?

OpenFlow aggregates live order books across on-chain prediction market venues, applies cross-venue price improvement, and displays unified Yes/No implied probabilities. Users trade on their own exchange — OpenFlow routes fills and settles exchange-to-exchange via USDC on Solana.

FedJerome PowellEconomyEconomic Policy

Fed rate cut by...?

Opens Dec 16, 2025Resolves Jun 17, 2026

Total volume

$2.9M

24h volume

$4K

Liquidity

$359K

Open interest

$457K

Resolves

Jun 17, 2026

Comments

7d volume

$335K

30d volume

$1.1M

1yr volume

$1.5M

Competitive

91.5%

Odds history

#OutcomeChance

Fed rate cut by December 2026 meeting?▼ 2.0% 1w▼ 8.5% 1m

1.0% spread

19%

Fed rate cut by October 2026 meeting?▼ 0.2% 1d▼ 2.6% 1w▼ 9.8% 1m

1.4% spread

10%

Fed rate cut by September 2026 meeting?▲ 0.1% 1d▼ 0.6% 1w▼ 4.3% 1m

0.1% spread

Fed rate cut by July 2026 meeting?▼ 0.1% 1d▼ 0.4% 1w▼ 2.3% 1m

0.1% spread

Fed rate cut by June 2026 meeting?▼ 0.7% 1d▼ 0.5% 1w▼ 1.7% 1m

0.1% spread

Fed rate cut by January 2026 meeting?▼ 0.8% 1d▼ 1.7% 1w▼ 13.5% 1m

0.1% spread

Fed rate cut by April 2026 meeting?▼ 0.4% 1d▼ 0.4% 1w▼ 1.8% 1m

0.1% spread

Fed rate cut by March 2026 meeting?▲ 0.4% 1d▼ 3.7% 1w▼ 14.7% 1m

0.1% spread

Min order: 5 USDCTick: 0.001Maker rewards ≥ 50 USDCMax spread: 4.5%

Order BookJune Meeting

Mid 1.2¢

PriceContractsTotal

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Price change▼ 0.7% 1d▼ 0.5% 1w▼ 1.7% 1m

📊 Market context

Persistent inflation has emerged as the dominant force shaping expectations for Federal Reserve policy, with the May 2026 CPI rising 4.2% year-over-year—the highest reading in three years—driven largely by energy prices amid geopolitical tensions. The FOMC’s June 16-17 meeting, Kevin Warsh’s first as chair, left the federal funds rate unchanged at 3.50%-3.75%, consistent with the pause maintained …

Rules summary

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is decreased at any point between December 16, 2025 and the completion of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting for January 2026, currently scheduled for January 27-28. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. If no January meeting takes place by February 7, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate cut has been announced, this market will resolve to "No". Emergency rate cuts will qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (htt…