Brazil Presidential Election First Round: 2nd Place. Current implied probability: 9% yes. Total volume: $4.2M. Resolves October 4, 2026. Live odds aggregated from Polymarket and Kalshi on OpenFlow.
BrazilPoliticsWorldGlobal Elections
Brazil Presidential Election First Round: 2nd Place
Opens Resolves
Total volume
$4.2M
24h volume
$2K
Liquidity
$644K
Open interest
$75K
Resolves
Oct 4, 2026
Comments
50
7d volume
$150K
30d volume
$425K
1yr volume
$4.1M
Competitive
89.6%
Odds history
#OutcomeChance
1
Will Flávio Bolsonaro finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?▲ 1.0% 1d▲ 3.5% 1w▲ 14.0% 1m
2.0% spread
82%
2
Will Renan Santos finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?▼ 1.5% 1d▲ 1.3% 1w▼ 2.9% 1m
2.4% spread
9%
3
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?▲ 0.2% 1d▼ 4.0% 1w▼ 0.3% 1m
1.5% spread
4%
4
Will Camilo Santana finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?▼ 0.2% 1d▲ 0.4% 1w▼ 3.0% 1m
1.0% spread
1%
5
Will Ronaldo Caiado finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?▲ 0.1% 1d▲ 0.1% 1w▼ 0.8% 1m
0.2% spread
1%
6
Will Romeu Zema finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?▲ 0.1% 1w▼ 2.4% 1m
0.3% spread
1%
7
Will Fernando Haddad finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?▼ 0.2% 1w▼ 1.8% 1m
0.1% spread
1%
8
Will Michelle Bolsonaro finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?▲ 0.1% 1d▼ 0.3% 1w▼ 0.5% 1m
0.3% spread
0%
9
Will Jair Bolsonaro finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?▼ 0.1% 1d▼ 0.4% 1w▼ 0.1% 1m
0.1% spread
0%
10
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?
0.1% spread
0%
11
Will Aldo Rebelo finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?
0.1% spread
0%
12
Will Tarcisio de Freitas finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?
0.1% spread
0%
13
Will Carlos Roberto Massa Júnior finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?▼ 0.1% 1m
0.1% spread
0%
14
Will Geraldo Alckmin finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?▼ 0.1% 1d▼ 0.4% 1w▼ 0.5% 1m
0.1% spread
0%
15
Will Eduardo Leite finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?
0.1% spread
0%
16
Will Tereza Cristina finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?▼ 0.1% 1m
0.1% spread
0%
17
Will Helder Barbalho finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?
0.1% spread
0%
18
Will another person finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?
Flávio Bolsonaro maintains a dominant position in trader expectations for second place in Brazil’s October 4, 2026 first-round presidential vote because he has consolidated the core right-wing and evangelical voter base behind the Liberal Party candidacy, following his father Jair Bolsonaro’s endorsement and ineligibility. Recent polling from June shows him trailing incumbent Luiz Inácio Lula da S…
Rules summary
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the second-most valid votes in the first round of this election.
The named candidates will be primarily ranked by the number of valid votes received in the specified election. If two or more candidates are tied on valid votes, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates' last names. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this…
