Billionaire one-time wealth tax passes in California election 2026?

**Traders assign an 82% probability that the proposed one-time 5% wealth tax on California billionaires fails to pass the November 2026 election.** The measure, backed by SEIU-UHW and filed as Initiative 25-0024, would tax net worth above $1 billion (based on residency as of early 2026) to fund healthcare, K-14 education, and food assistance amid federal cuts. Supporters submitted over 1.5 million…

A one-time wealth tax on billionaires has been proposed to potentially appear on California's ballot for the November 3, 2026 general election. You can read more about that here: https://6abc.com/post/california-union-proposes-taxing-billionaires-offset-medicaid-cuts-low-income-people/18066430/ This market will resolve to "Yes" if any proposition containing a one-time tax targeting individuals, households, or family units with wealth, assets, or net worth of at least $1 billion (USD or equivalent) passes in the named election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If no qualifying bal…