Berlin State Election Winner. Current implied probability: 12% yes. Total volume: $3.0M. Resolves September 20, 2026. Live odds aggregated from Polymarket and Kalshi on OpenFlow.
Global ElectionsPoliticsElectionsGermany
Berlin State Election Winner
Opens Resolves
Total volume
$3.0M
24h volume
$19K
Liquidity
$309K
Open interest
$67K
Resolves
Sep 20, 2026
Comments
7
7d volume
$76K
30d volume
$269K
1yr volume
$2.9M
Competitive
97.7%
Odds history
#OutcomeChance
1
Will Linke win the most seats in the 2026 Berlin state elections?▼ 1.0% 1d▲ 5.0% 1w▲ 14.0% 1m
1.0% spread
34%
2
Will CDU win the most seats in the 2026 Berlin state elections?▲ 11.0% 1d▲ 3.0% 1w▼ 9.5% 1m
1.0% spread
25%
3
Will Grüne win the most seats in the 2026 Berlin state elections?▼ 2.0% 1d▼ 1.9% 1w▼ 3.5% 1m
0.3% spread
18%
4
Will AfD win the most seats in the 2026 Berlin state elections?▼ 7.0% 1d▼ 9.8% 1w▼ 5.7% 1m
0.1% spread
12%
5
Will SPD win the most seats in the 2026 Berlin state elections?▲ 0.8% 1d▲ 1.1% 1w▼ 0.8% 1m
1.6% spread
5%
6
Will BSW win the most seats in the 2026 Berlin state elections?▼ 0.1% 1m
0.1% spread
0%
7
Will FDP win the most seats in the 2026 Berlin state elections?
0.1% spread
0%
8
Will FW win the most seats in the 2026 Berlin state elections?
0.1% spread
0%
9
Will Party B win the most seats in the 2026 Berlin state elections?
100.0% spread
0%
10
Will Party D win the most seats in the 2026 Berlin state elections?
100.0% spread
0%
11
Will Party F win the most seats in the 2026 Berlin state elections?
100.0% spread
0%
12
Will Party H win the most seats in the 2026 Berlin state elections?
100.0% spread
0%
13
Will Party J win the most seats in the 2026 Berlin state elections?
100.0% spread
0%
14
Will Party L win the most seats in the 2026 Berlin state elections?
100.0% spread
0%
15
Will Party N win the most seats in the 2026 Berlin state elections?
100.0% spread
0%
16
Will another party win the most seats in the 2026 Berlin state elections?
100.0% spread
0%
17
Will Party A win the most seats in the 2026 Berlin state elections?
100.0% spread
0%
18
Will Party C win the most seats in the 2026 Berlin state elections?
100.0% spread
0%
19
Will Party E win the most seats in the 2026 Berlin state elections?
100.0% spread
0%
20
Will Party G win the most seats in the 2026 Berlin state elections?
100.0% spread
0%
21
Will Party I win the most seats in the 2026 Berlin state elections?
100.0% spread
0%
22
Will Party K win the most seats in the 2026 Berlin state elections?
100.0% spread
0%
23
Will Party M win the most seats in the 2026 Berlin state elections?
100.0% spread
0%
24
Will Party O win the most seats in the 2026 Berlin state elections?
Berlin's September 2026 Abgeordnetenhaus election features a fragmented field in which CDU, Grüne, Linke, AfD and SPD each poll in the mid-to-high teens, reflecting Berlin's proportional representation rules and diverse voter base. Current trader pricing places CDU ahead but with Grüne and Linke close behind, consistent with spring 2026 surveys showing no party exceeding roughly 20 percent amid cr…
Rules summary
Parliamentary elections to elect the Abgeordnetehaus of Berlin are scheduled to take place in Berlin on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the formal deliberative assembly of Berlin (Abgeordnetenhaus) as a result of this election.
If voting in the Berlin election for the Abgeordnetenhaus does not occur by December 31, 2026, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the case of a tie between this party or coalition and any other for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose li…
