Balance of Power: 2026 Midterms

The closely matched probabilities for a Democratic sweep versus a Republican Senate with Democratic House control reflect persistent uncertainty over voter turnout patterns, economic performance, and candidate quality in competitive districts and states five months before the November elections. Historical midterm dynamics often favor the opposition party to the sitting president, yet current trad…

This market will resolve according to the result of the 2026 United States midterm elections. A party will be considered to have 'control' of the House of Representatives, if they win a majority of voting seats. A party will be considered to have 'control' of the Senate if they have more than half of the voting Senate members, or half of the voting Senate members and the Vice President. A candidate's party is determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time the 2026 United States midterm elections are conclusively called by this market's re…