World Cup Winner . Current implied probability: 58% yes. Total volume: $4274.8M. Resolves July 20, 2026. Live odds aggregated from Polymarket and Kalshi on OpenFlow.
⭐ FeaturedSoccerSportsFIFA World Cup2026 FIFA World Cup
World Cup Winner
Opens Resolves
Total volume
$4.27B
24h volume
$24.5M
Liquidity
$12.9M
Open interest
$61.2M
Resolves
Jul 20, 2026
Comments
3,906
7d volume
$78.9M
30d volume
$242.0M
1yr volume
$383.7M
Competitive
99.4%
Odds history
#OutcomeChance
1
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?▼ 0.2% 1d▲ 38.9% 1w▲ 43.9% 1m
0.1% spread
58%
2
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?▲ 22.1% 1d▲ 21.7% 1w▲ 32.5% 1m
0.1% spread
42%
3
Will New Zealand win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
0.1% spread
0%
4
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?▼ 1.6% 1d▼ 0.8% 1w▼ 1.3% 1m
0.1% spread
0%
5
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?▼ 22.8% 1d▼ 15.8% 1w▼ 10.5% 1m
0.1% spread
0%
6
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?▼ 39.0% 1d▼ 33.0% 1w▼ 16.0% 1m
0.1% spread
0%
7
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?▼ 0.3% 1w▼ 0.2% 1m
0.1% spread
0%
8
Will Haiti win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?▼ 0.1% 1m
0.1% spread
0%
9
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?▼ 6.4% 1d▼ 5.9% 1w▼ 8.2% 1m
0.1% spread
0%
10
Will Jordan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
0.1% spread
0%
11
Will Curaçao win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
0.1% spread
0%
12
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?▼ 3.9% 1d▼ 5.6% 1w▼ 5.1% 1m
0.1% spread
0%
13
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?▼ 3.2% 1d▼ 2.7% 1w▼ 1.8% 1m
0.1% spread
0%
14
Will Iran win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?▼ 0.1% 1m
0.1% spread
0%
15
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?▼ 5.8% 1d▼ 6.2% 1w▼ 10.0% 1m
0.1% spread
0%
16
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?▼ 0.1% 1w▼ 0.2% 1m
0.1% spread
0%
17
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?▼ 5.0% 1d▼ 4.8% 1w▼ 4.1% 1m
0.1% spread
0%
18
Will Algeria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?▼ 0.1% 1m
0.1% spread
0%
19
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?▼ 0.1% 1w▼ 0.2% 1m
0.1% spread
0%
20
Will Italy win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?▼ 0.1% 1w▼ 0.1% 1m
0.1% spread
0%
21
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?▼ 3.2% 1d▼ 2.7% 1w▼ 1.1% 1m
0.1% spread
0%
22
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?▼ 0.2% 1d▼ 0.1% 1w▼ 0.3% 1m
0.1% spread
0%
23
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?▼ 0.4% 1d▼ 1.1% 1w▼ 0.6% 1m
0.1% spread
0%
24
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?▼ 0.1% 1d▼ 0.5% 1w▼ 1.0% 1m
0.1% spread
0%
25
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?▼ 3.4% 1d▼ 1.2% 1w▼ 1.2% 1m
0.1% spread
0%
26
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?▼ 0.1% 1d▼ 0.2% 1m
0.1% spread
0%
27
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?▼ 0.1% 1w▼ 0.2% 1m
0.1% spread
0%
28
Will Peru win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?▼ 0.1% 1d▼ 0.1% 1w▲ 0.1% 1m
0.1% spread
100%
29
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?▼ 1.0% 1d▼ 2.0% 1w▼ 1.9% 1m
0.1% spread
0%
30
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?▼ 5.9% 1d▼ 1.6% 1w▼ 2.4% 1m
0.1% spread
7%
31
Will Any Other Team win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
100.0% spread
0%
32
Will Tunisia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?▼ 0.1% 1m
0.1% spread
0%
33
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?▼ 0.5% 1d▼ 0.1% 1w▼ 0.8% 1m
0.1% spread
0%
34
Will Uzbekistan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
0.1% spread
0%
35
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?▼ 2.8% 1d▼ 2.3% 1w▼ 1.7% 1m
0.1% spread
0%
36
Will Panama win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
0.1% spread
0%
37
Will Iraq win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
0.1% spread
0%
38
Will South Africa win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
0.1% spread
0%
39
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?▼ 0.5% 1d▼ 0.2% 1w▼ 0.6% 1m
0.1% spread
0%
40
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?▼ 0.2% 1d▼ 0.3% 1w▼ 0.2% 1m
0.1% spread
0%
41
Will Congo DR win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
0.1% spread
0%
42
Will Cape Verde win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?▼ 0.1% 1w
0.1% spread
0%
43
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?▼ 0.2% 1m
0.1% spread
0%
44
Will Qatar win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
0.1% spread
0%
45
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?▼ 2.1% 1d▼ 1.0% 1w▼ 2.1% 1m
0.1% spread
0%
46
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?▼ 0.1% 1d▼ 0.1% 1w▼ 0.1% 1m
0.1% spread
0%
47
Will Saudi Arabia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
0.1% spread
0%
48
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?▼ 0.1% 1d▼ 0.2% 1w▼ 0.5% 1m
0.1% spread
0%
49
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?▼ 0.3% 1d▼ 0.4% 1w▼ 0.8% 1m
0.1% spread
0%
50
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?▼ 0.3% 1d▼ 0.1% 1w▼ 0.2% 1m
0.1% spread
0%
51
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?▼ 0.1% 1d▼ 0.2% 1w▼ 0.5% 1m
France leads the 2026 FIFA World Cup winner market at 18.4% implied probability after opening with a 3-1 victory over Senegal featuring multiple goals from Kylian Mbappé, while Spain sits at 13.8% following a surprising 0-0 draw against Cape Verde that tempered expectations from its Euro 2024-winning squad. England (12.8%) and defending champion Argentina (11.6%) remain tightly clustered behind th…
Rules summary
This market will resolve according to the national team that wins the 2026 FIFA World Cup.
If at any point it becomes impossible for this team to win the FIFA World Cup based on the rules of FIFA (e.g., they are eliminated in the knockout stage), this market will resolve immediately to “No”.
If the 2026 FIFA World Cup is permanently canceled or has not been completed by October 13, 2026, 11:59 PM this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source will be official information from FIFA, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
