World Cup: Golden Ball Winner. Current implied probability: 1% yes. Total volume: $9.8M. Resolves July 20, 2026. Live odds aggregated from Polymarket and Kalshi on OpenFlow.
SoccerSportsworld cupgolden ball
World Cup: Golden Ball Winner
Opens Resolves
Total volume
$9.8M
24h volume
$1.3M
Liquidity
$968K
Open interest
$600K
Resolves
Jul 20, 2026
Comments
27
7d volume
$6.3M
30d volume
$9.3M
1yr volume
$9.4M
Competitive
86.8%
Odds history
#OutcomeChance
1
Will Lionel Messi win the Golden Ball at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?▲ 48.4% 1d▲ 58.4% 1w▲ 79.0% 1m
0.7% spread
89%
2
Will Player A win the Golden Ball at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
100.0% spread
50%
3
Will Player B win the Golden Ball at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
100.0% spread
50%
4
Will Player C win the Golden Ball at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
100.0% spread
50%
5
Will Player D win the Golden Ball at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
100.0% spread
50%
6
Will Player E win the Golden Ball at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
100.0% spread
50%
7
Will Player F win the Golden Ball at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
100.0% spread
50%
8
Will Player G win the Golden Ball at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
100.0% spread
50%
9
Will Player H win the Golden Ball at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
100.0% spread
50%
10
Will Player I win the Golden Ball at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
100.0% spread
50%
11
Will Player J win the Golden Ball at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
100.0% spread
50%
12
Will Player K win the Golden Ball at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
100.0% spread
50%
13
Will Player L win the Golden Ball at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
100.0% spread
50%
14
Will Player M win the Golden Ball at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
100.0% spread
50%
15
Will Player N win the Golden Ball at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
100.0% spread
50%
16
Will Player O win the Golden Ball at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
100.0% spread
50%
17
Will Player P win the Golden Ball at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
100.0% spread
50%
18
Will Player Q win the Golden Ball at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
100.0% spread
50%
19
Will Player R win the Golden Ball at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
100.0% spread
50%
20
Will Player S win the Golden Ball at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
100.0% spread
50%
21
Will Player T win the Golden Ball at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
100.0% spread
50%
22
Will someone else win the Golden Ball at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
100.0% spread
50%
23
Will Rodri win the Golden Ball at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?▼ 11.1% 1d▲ 5.9% 1w▲ 5.2% 1m
0.3% spread
7%
24
Will Lamine Yamal win the Golden Ball at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?▼ 0.9% 1d▲ 0.2% 1w▼ 9.9% 1m
0.4% spread
2%
25
Will Kylian Mbappé win the Golden Ball at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?▼ 1.8% 1d▼ 34.5% 1w▼ 10.5% 1m
0.1% spread
1%
26
Will Jude Bellingham win the Golden Ball at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?▼ 29.5% 1d▼ 6.5% 1w▼ 1.5% 1m
0.1% spread
0%
27
Will Harry Kane win the Golden Ball at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?▼ 8.3% 1d▼ 8.4% 1w▼ 6.3% 1m
0.2% spread
0%
28
Will Michael Olise win the Golden Ball at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?▼ 0.1% 1d▼ 2.3% 1w▼ 11.5% 1m
0.1% spread
0%
29
Will Vinícius Jr. win the Golden Ball at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?▼ 3.7% 1m
0.1% spread
0%
30
Will Ousmane Dembélé win the Golden Ball at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?▼ 0.1% 1d▼ 1.6% 1w▼ 4.2% 1m
0.1% spread
0%
31
Will Cristiano Ronaldo win the Golden Ball at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?▼ 3.5% 1m
0.1% spread
0%
32
Will Rayan Cherki win the Golden Ball at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?▼ 3.0% 1m
0.1% spread
0%
33
Will Erling Haaland win the Golden Ball at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?▼ 11.2% 1w▼ 3.6% 1m
0.1% spread
0%
34
Will Pedri win the Golden Ball at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?▼ 0.1% 1w▼ 3.6% 1m
0.1% spread
0%
35
Will Bruno Fernandes win the Golden Ball at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?▼ 5.5% 1m
0.1% spread
0%
36
Will Vitinha win the Golden Ball at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?▼ 3.2% 1m
0.1% spread
0%
37
Will Florian Wirtz win the Golden Ball at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?▼ 3.1% 1m
0.1% spread
0%
38
Will Neymar win the Golden Ball at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?▼ 0.1% 1m
0.1% spread
0%
39
Will Gavi win the Golden Ball at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?▼ 0.4% 1m
0.1% spread
0%
40
Will Bukayo Saka win the Golden Ball at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?▼ 0.5% 1m
0.1% spread
0%
41
Will Declan Rice win the Golden Ball at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?▼ 0.1% 1w▼ 2.5% 1m
The 2026 World Cup Golden Ball market remains tightly contested in its early stages, with Mbappé, Messi, Kane, Olise, and Yamal leading as the top contenders per current trader pricing. Pre-tournament expectations centered on established stars like Mbappé and Messi leveraging club form and national team pedigree, while emerging talents such as Yamal benefited from strong recent international showi…
Rules summary
This market will resolve to the player who wins the Golden Ball award for the 2026 FIFA World Cup.
In the event of a tie, this market will resolve according to the official winner as determined by FIFA rules. If multiple winners are announced then this market will resolve to the player whose listed last name comes first alphabetically.
If the 2026 FIFA World Cup is cancelled, postponed after August 2, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or there is otherwise no winner declared within that timeframe, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The resolution source for this market will be official information from …
