What are the current odds for: Will US withdraw from NATO by...?

According to OpenFlow's prediction market aggregator, the current implied probability is 3% as of 2026-08-30. Total volume on this market is $6.3M. This market resolves on January 1, 2027.

How does OpenFlow aggregate prediction market odds?

OpenFlow aggregates live order books across on-chain prediction market venues, applies cross-venue price improvement, and displays unified Yes/No implied probabilities. Users trade on their own exchange — OpenFlow routes fills and settles exchange-to-exchange via USDC on Solana.

Will US withdraw from NATO by...?. Current implied probability: 3% yes. Total volume: $6.3M. Resolves January 1, 2027. Live odds aggregated from Polymarket and Kalshi on OpenFlow.

PoliticsWorldTrumpForeign Policy

Will US withdraw from NATO by...?

Opens Nov 5, 2025Resolves Jan 1, 2027

Total volume

$6.3M

24h volume

$2K

Liquidity

$93K

Open interest

$218K

Resolves

Jan 1, 2027

Comments

7d volume

$16K

30d volume

$57K

1yr volume

$1.3M

Competitive

81.6%

Odds history

#OutcomeChance

Will US withdraw from NATO before 2027?▼ 0.4% 1d▲ 0.1% 1w▼ 0.5% 1m

0.5% spread

Will US withdraw from NATO by August 31?▼ 0.1% 1d▼ 0.2% 1w▼ 0.5% 1m

0.1% spread

Will US withdraw from NATO by April 30?▼ 0.1% 1d▼ 0.5% 1w

0.1% spread

Will US withdraw from NATO by June 30?▼ 0.1% 1w▼ 1.4% 1m

0.1% spread

Min order: 5 USDCTick: 0.001

Order BookDecember 31

Mid 2.5¢

PriceContractsTotal

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Price change▼ 0.4% 1d▲ 0.1% 1w▼ 0.5% 1m

📊 Market context

Legal barriers under a 2023 law requiring two-thirds Senate approval or congressional action make formal U.S. withdrawal from NATO highly improbable in the near term. The Trump administration has instead pursued force posture adjustments, including announced troop reductions from Germany and rotational deployments in Eastern Europe, alongside scaled-back conventional capabilities such as fighters,…

Rules summary

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States formally initiates a withdrawal from NATO or provides an official notice of denunciation to NATO by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A notice of denunciation refers to the submission of a notice of withdrawal as per Article 13 of the North Atlantic Treaty. Any action meeting these criteria will qualify for a “Yes” resolution regardless of if its implementation is immediately halted or delayed by judicial or other actions. The U.S.'s exit from NATO’s integrated military command structure will n…