OpenFlowWill Trump acquire Greenland before 2027?. Current implied probability: 4% yes. Total volume: $35.4M. Resolves January 1, 2027. Live odds aggregated from Polymarket and Kalshi on OpenFlow.
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027?
Traders assign a 96.2% probability to “No” on Trump acquiring Greenland before 2027 because sustained diplomatic pushback, procedural barriers, and shifting U.S. priorities have kept full territorial transfer off the table. Greenland and Denmark have repeatedly rejected any sale or sovereignty change, while January 2026 talks—initially framed around possible purchase or tariffs—evolved into negoti…
Rules summary
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States officially announces that Greenland will come under US sovereignty by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No". Sovereignty is defined as the transfer of the majority of the territory of Greenland from its current status as an autonomous territory within the Kingdom of Denmark to being under the formal governance or jurisdiction of the United States, either as a state, territory, or other classification within the US system. An official announcement made by the United States and Denmark that Greenland wi…