OpenFlowWill the US officially declare war on Iran by...?. Current implied probability: 3% yes. Total volume: $7.8M. Resolves January 1, 2027. Live odds aggregated from Polymarket and Kalshi on OpenFlow.
Will the US officially declare war on Iran by...?
US military operations against Iran have continued for six months since late February 2026 without a congressional declaration of war, relying instead on executive authority and periodic notifications to lawmakers. Recent developments center on the expiration of the June memorandum of understanding, a shift from airstrikes to intensified economic measures including secondary sanctions and naval en…
Rules summary
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States formally declares war on Iran through an act of Congress between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." To qualify, Congress must pass a formal declaration of war, consistent with its constitutional authority under Article I, Section 8. Authorizations for the use of military force (AUMFs), executive orders, presidential statements, or military actions do not qualify unless accompanied by a formal declaration of war enacted by Congress and signed into law. The resolution source wi…