OpenFlowWill the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?. Current implied probability: 15% yes. Total volume: $63.0M. Resolves January 1, 2027. Live odds aggregated from Polymarket and Kalshi on OpenFlow.
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
The U.S. and Iran have remained in a state of limited conflict since U.S. and Israeli airstrikes began in February 2026, focused on degrading Iranian military and nuclear-related capabilities without any ground invasion. In recent weeks, the Trump administration has shifted emphasis to intensified economic sanctions and secondary measures targeting Iran's oil exports and financial access, followin…
Rules summary
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of Iran by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by Iran or the United States as of November 4, 2025 12:00 PM ET, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible sources.