Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?

**Recent diplomatic progress has reinforced trader expectations that the United States will avoid a ground invasion of Iran before 2027.** After joint U.S.-Israeli airstrikes beginning February 28, 2026, which targeted Iranian military infrastructure and leadership but stopped short of deploying U.S. ground forces, a ceasefire took hold in April. Tensions then centered on the Strait of Hormuz bloc…

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of Iran by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by Iran or the United States as of November 4, 2025 12:00 PM ET, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible sources.