What are the current odds for: Will the US confirm that aliens exist by...?

According to OpenFlow's prediction market aggregator, the current implied probability is 4% as of 2026-08-30. Total volume on this market is $66.0M. This market resolves on January 1, 2027.

How does OpenFlow aggregate prediction market odds?

OpenFlow aggregates live order books across on-chain prediction market venues, applies cross-venue price improvement, and displays unified Yes/No implied probabilities. Users trade on their own exchange — OpenFlow routes fills and settles exchange-to-exchange via USDC on Solana.

Will the US confirm that aliens exist by...?. Current implied probability: 4% yes. Total volume: $66.0M. Resolves January 1, 2027. Live odds aggregated from Polymarket and Kalshi on OpenFlow.

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Will the US confirm that aliens exist by...?

Opens Nov 25, 2025Resolves Jan 1, 2027

Total volume

$66.0M

24h volume

$17K

Liquidity

$1.0M

Open interest

$8.6M

Resolves

Jan 1, 2027

Comments

1,683

7d volume

$551K

30d volume

$2.2M

1yr volume

$42.2M

Competitive

82.5%

Odds history

#OutcomeChance

Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?▼ 1.6% 1m

0.1% spread

Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30?▲ 0.1% 1d▼ 0.2% 1w▼ 0.7% 1m

0.1% spread

Will the US confirm that aliens exist by March 31?

0.1% spread

Will the US confirm that aliens exist by April 30?▼ 0.6% 1w

0.1% spread

Will the US confirm that aliens exist by June 30?▼ 0.6% 1w▼ 1.8% 1m

0.1% spread

Will the US confirm that aliens exist by May 31?▼ 0.5% 1w▼ 2.1% 1m

0.1% spread

Min order: 5 USDCTick: 0.001Maker rewards ≥ 200 USDCMax spread: 3.5%

Order BookDecember 31

Mid 4.0¢

PriceContractsTotal

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Price change▼ 1.6% 1m

📊 Market context

Recent U.S. government disclosures on unidentified anomalous phenomena (UAP) have centered on five Pentagon file tranches released since May 2026 under an executive order, plus the AARO FY2025 annual report issued in July. These materials document hundreds of sensor videos, witness accounts, and historical records, yet every resolved case has been attributed to conventional sources such as satelli…

Rules summary

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the President of the United States, any member of the Cabinet of the United States, any member of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, or any US federal agency definitively states that extraterrestrial life or technology exists by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of the United States, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.