OpenFlowWill the Iranian regime fall before 2027?. Current implied probability: 7% yes. Total volume: $25.3M. Resolves January 1, 2027. Live odds aggregated from Polymarket and Kalshi on OpenFlow.
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?
The Islamic Republic of Iran has demonstrated institutional resilience since early 2026, when nationwide economic protests were suppressed and U.S.-Israeli strikes killed Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, prompting rapid succession to his son Mojtaba Khamenei and continued control by the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps without major defections. By late August 2026, the regime maintains authority amid…
Rules summary
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Islamic Republic of Iran’s current ruling regime is overthrown, collapsed, or otherwise ceases to govern by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. This requires a broad consensus of reporting indicating that core structures of the Islamic Republic (e.g. the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, IRGC control under clerical authority) have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different governing system or otherwise lost de facto power over a majority of the population of Iran. T…