Will Russia invade a NATO country by...?

Russia’s ongoing campaign in Ukraine, which has left Moscow controlling roughly one-fifth of the territory as of mid-2026, continues to shape assessments of direct confrontation risks with NATO. Russian officials have issued repeated warnings against NATO forces or bases in Ukraine while conducting hybrid probes, including repeated airspace incursions from Belarus into Poland and Lithuania. Wester…

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Russia commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of any NATO country between May 28 and December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by NATO member states or Russia as of May 28, 2025, will be considered the sovereign territory of those countries. Hybrid or “grey zone” operations conducted by unmarked personnel will qualify if they are confirmed to be Russian operatives and are intended to establish de facto control over territory,…