Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by...?. Current implied probability: 2% yes. Total volume: $2.2M. Resolves December 31, 2026. Live odds aggregated from Polymarket and Kalshi on OpenFlow.
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Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by...?
Opens Resolves
Total volume
$2.2M
24h volume
$271
Liquidity
$18K
Open interest
$8K
Resolves
Dec 31, 2026
Comments
192
7d volume
$179K
30d volume
$1.7M
1yr volume
$1.9M
Competitive
85.6%
Odds history
#OutcomeChance
1
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by December 31, 2026?▼ 3.0% 1d▼ 0.5% 1w
2.0% spread
11%
2
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026?▼ 1.2% 1d▼ 2.8% 1w▼ 6.2% 1m
0.9% spread
3%
3
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by February 28, 2026?▲ 0.7% 1d▼ 5.1% 1w▼ 30.2% 1m
0.1% spread
2%
4
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by March 31, 2026?▼ 3.0% 1d▼ 8.0% 1w▼ 46.5% 1m
0.1% spread
0%
5
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by January 31, 2026?▼ 0.2% 1d▼ 6.5% 1w▼ 28.0% 1m
0.1% spread
0%
6
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by April 30, 2026?▼ 0.1% 1d▼ 1.5% 1w▼ 8.9% 1m
0.1% spread
0%
7
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by May 31, 2026?▼ 0.5% 1d▼ 1.9% 1w▼ 5.9% 1m
Ukrainian special forces operations in May 2026, including coordinated assaults by the HUR “Artan” unit, drove Russian elements from fortified positions and key locations in Stepnohirsk, Zaporizhzhia Oblast, restoring Ukrainian control over much of the settlement along the E105 highway northwest of Orikhiv. As of early June, Russian infiltration attempts continue but have been countered by Ukraini…
Rules summary
This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Russia captures the entirety of Stepnohirsk, Zaporizhzhia Oblast, by January 15, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Stepnohirsk will be considered captured if the entirety of the municipality is shaded red on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. If the area is not shaded red by January 15, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to “No”.
For any change on the ISW map to qualify for this market’s resolution, the relevant shading indicating Russian control must persist thro…
