Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by...?

Russian forces have conducted repeated infiltration attempts and small-unit advances around Kupiansk in Kharkiv Oblast since late 2024, including pipeline incursions and probes into northern and western suburbs, but Ukrainian defenders have repeatedly cleared positions and restored control over key urban areas through counterattacks. Independent assessments through mid-2026 confirm Russian troops …

This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Russia captures the entirety of Kupiansk by November 30, 2025, at 11:59 PM ET. Kupiansk will be considered captured if the entirety of the municipality is shaded red on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. If the area is not shaded red by November 30, 2025, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to “No”. The territory of the municipality is shaded in light grey and is distinguished from bordering municipalities such as "Moskovka" with a darker grey line. If all…