What are the current odds for: Will Hezbollah disarm by...?

According to OpenFlow's prediction market aggregator, the current implied probability is 0% as of 2026-07-16. Total volume on this market is $3.0M. This market resolves on December 31, 2026.

How does OpenFlow aggregate prediction market odds?

OpenFlow aggregates live order books across on-chain prediction market venues, applies cross-venue price improvement, and displays unified Yes/No implied probabilities. Users trade on their own exchange — OpenFlow routes fills and settles exchange-to-exchange via USDC on Solana.

Hezbollah DisarmPoliticsGeopoliticsForeign PolicyIsrael

Will Hezbollah disarm by...?

Opens Nov 5, 2025Resolves Dec 31, 2026

Total volume

$3.0M

24h volume

$71

Liquidity

$13K

Open interest

$27K

Resolves

Dec 31, 2026

Comments

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7d volume

$21K

30d volume

$40K

1yr volume

$2.0M

Competitive

85.9%

Odds history

#OutcomeChance

Will Hezbollah disarm by December 31?▼ 2.0% 1w▼ 3.5% 1m

1.0% spread

10%

Will Hezbollah disarm by March 31?▲ 0.1% 1d▼ 6.7% 1m

0.1% spread

Will Hezbollah disarm by April 30?▼ 0.1% 1d▼ 0.4% 1w

0.1% spread

Min order: 5 USDCTick: 0.001Maker rewards ≥ 20 USDCMax spread: 3.5%

Order BookMarch 31

Mid 0.2¢

PriceContractsTotal

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Price change▲ 0.1% 1d▼ 6.7% 1m

📊 Market context

Lebanese government efforts to disarm Hezbollah have advanced in phases since the 2024 ceasefire, with the Lebanese Armed Forces reporting completion of the first phase south of the Litani River by early 2026 under a plan approved in September 2025. International pressure, including U.S. demands tied to the truce and UN resolutions, supported the August 2025 cabinet directive for the army to estab…

Rules summary

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Hezbollah officially announces it will disarm in Lebanon by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Only announcements supported by the Secretary-General of Hezbollah (currently Naim Qassem), a direct successor, or, if the position of Secretary-General of Hezbollah is vacant, the widely acknowledged leadership of Hezbollah will qualify. For the purposes of this market, "disarm" refers to a public commitment to relinquish or dismantle its military, whether partially or completely, in Lebanon. Announcements of partial dis…