OpenFlowWill China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?. Current implied probability: 4% yes. Total volume: $40.4M. Resolves December 31, 2026. Live odds aggregated from Polymarket and Kalshi on OpenFlow.
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?
Traders assign a 96.3% probability to no Chinese invasion of Taiwan by the end of 2026, reflecting sustained grey-zone pressure through record coast guard and research vessel activity around the island, repeated PLA aircraft and naval patrols, and live-fire drills rather than visible preparations for large-scale amphibious operations. Taiwan has responded with intensified combat-readiness exercise…
Rules summary
This market will resolve to "Yes" if China commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the Republic of China (Taiwan) by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Territory under the administration of the Republic of China including any inhabited islands will qualify, however uninhabited islands will not qualify. The resolution source for this market will be will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council, however a consensus of credible reporting wi…