OpenFlowWill Bitcoin replace SHA-256 before 2027?. Current implied probability: 2% yes. Total volume: $196,223. Resolves January 1, 2027. Live odds aggregated from Polymarket and Kalshi on OpenFlow.
Will Bitcoin replace SHA-256 before 2027?
Rules summary
On December 9, Google introduced Willow, a breakthrough state-of-the-art quantum chip. This achievement fueled speculation that Bitcoin's encryption may be vulnerable to quantum computers in the not-so-distant future (see https://www.cryptoglobe.com/latest/2024/12/does-googles-new-quantum-chip-willow-threaten-bitcoin-the-crypto-community-responds/). This market will resolve to "Yes" if Bitcoin stops using SHA-256 by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." The resolution source will be the Bitcoin blockchain, in addition to a consensus of credible reportin…