Who will sign U.S. x Iran deal?. Current implied probability: 1% yes. Total volume: $1.9M. Resolves August 1, 2026. Live odds aggregated from Polymarket and Kalshi on OpenFlow.
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Who will sign U.S. x Iran deal?
Opens Resolves
Total volume
$1.9M
24h volume
$2K
Liquidity
$271K
Open interest
$211K
Resolves
Aug 1, 2026
Comments
59
7d volume
$17K
30d volume
$753K
1yr volume
$899K
Competitive
81.5%
Odds history
#OutcomeChance
1
Will Masoud Pezeshkian sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31?▲ 83.5% 1d
0.1% spread
100%
2
Will Shehbaz Sharif sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31?▲ 61.5% 1d
0.1% spread
100%
3
Will JD Vance sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31?▲ 38.1% 1d
0.5% spread
100%
4
Will Donald Trump sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31?▲ 73.0% 1d
4.7% spread
100%
5
Will Mohammed bin Salman sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31?▲ 0.2% 1d▲ 1.3% 1w▼ 9.2% 1m
0.9% spread
1%
6
Will Hamad bin Isa Al Khalifa sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31?▲ 0.1% 1d▲ 0.4% 1w▼ 6.2% 1m
1.1% spread
2%
7
Will Abbas Araghchi sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31?▼ 0.1% 1d▼ 0.9% 1w▼ 29.0% 1m
0.5% spread
2%
8
Will Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31?▲ 0.1% 1d▼ 1.5% 1w▼ 87.7% 1m
0.8% spread
1%
9
Will Steve Witkoff sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31?▼ 0.1% 1d▼ 0.7% 1w▼ 20.1% 1m
0.3% spread
2%
10
Will Marco Rubio sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31?▼ 0.1% 1d▼ 0.6% 1w▼ 9.3% 1m
0.3% spread
1%
11
Will Mojtaba Khamenei sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31?▲ 0.7% 1w▼ 3.3% 1m
0.5% spread
1%
12
Will Sheikh Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31?▼ 0.1% 1d▼ 0.4% 1w▼ 42.8% 1m
0.3% spread
1%
13
Will Mohamed bin Zayed Al Nahyan sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31?▼ 0.3% 1w▼ 5.9% 1m
0.3% spread
1%
14
Will Pete Hegseth sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31?▼ 0.1% 1w▼ 1.7% 1m
0.1% spread
1%
15
Will Benjamin Netanyahu sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31?▼ 0.1% 1w▼ 4.3% 1m
0.1% spread
1%
16
Will Recep Tayyip Erdogan sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31?▼ 0.1% 1d▼ 0.3% 1w▼ 0.7% 1m
1.1% spread
1%
17
Will Mishal Al-Ahmad Al-Jaber Al-Sabah sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31?▼ 1.0% 1w▼ 12.6% 1m
0.3% spread
1%
18
Will King Abdullah II sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31?▼ 0.5% 1w▼ 14.8% 1m
0.1% spread
1%
19
Will Abdel Fattah el-Sisi sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31?▲ 0.1% 1d▼ 0.1% 1w▼ 2.7% 1m
0.6% spread
2%
20
Will Ali Larijani sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31?▼ 0.5% 1d
Recent developments center on a preliminary U.S.-Iran memorandum of understanding reached in mid-June 2026 after more than 100 days of conflict that began with U.S.-Israeli strikes in February. The 14-point framework extends the existing ceasefire for 60 days, commits Iran to forgo nuclear weapons, outlines sanctions relief and oil export waivers tied to further progress, and schedules reopening o…
Rules summary
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the listed individual signs a written agreement to which both the United States and the Islamic Republic of Iran are parties by July 31, 2026 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A qualifying agreement must be signed by the listed individual acting in an official capacity.
The United States and the Islamic Republic of Iran must both be parties to the agreement; however, it is not required that representatives of either or both countries sign the agreement in order for it to qualify.
The listed individual may sign on behalf of either …
