OpenFlowWhich party will win the House in 2026?. Current implied probability: 50% yes. Total volume: $9.9M. Resolves November 3, 2026. Live odds aggregated from Polymarket and Kalshi on OpenFlow.
Which party will win the House in 2026?
Democratic control of the House in the 2026 midterms reflects consistent leads in generic congressional ballot polling, with Democrats ahead by 5–8 points in recent surveys amid widespread voter dissatisfaction with the Republican administration’s handling of economic pressures and foreign policy. Historical midterm patterns under a sitting president, combined with recent Inside Elections and othe…
Rules summary
This market will resolve according to the party that wins control of the United States House of Representatives in the 2026 United States midterm election. A party wins control of the United States House of Representatives if it wins a majority of the chamber’s voting seats. If no party wins a majority of voting seats, the chamber will be deemed controlled by the party with which the first elected Speaker of the House of the Congress that convenes after the 2026 midterm election is affiliated. The following rules govern the counting of seats for determining which party wins control of the ch…