What will the Fed rate be at the end of 2026?. Current implied probability: 13% yes. Total volume: $6.7M. Resolves December 9, 2026. Live odds aggregated from Polymarket and Kalshi on OpenFlow.
Fed RatesEconomic PolicyFedPolitics
What will the Fed rate be at the end of 2026?
Opens Resolves
Total volume
$6.7M
24h volume
$6K
Liquidity
$303K
Open interest
$32K
Resolves
Dec 9, 2026
Comments
6
7d volume
$11K
30d volume
$91K
1yr volume
$6.7M
Competitive
96.5%
Odds history
#OutcomeChance
1
Will the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be 3.75% at the end of 2026?▲ 0.9% 1d▼ 5.1% 1w▼ 7.8% 1m
2.2% spread
32%
2
Will the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be 4.0% at the end of 2026?▼ 1.2% 1d▼ 0.5% 1w▼ 7.0% 1m
4.2% spread
24%
3
Will the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be 3.5% at the end of 2026?▼ 0.2% 1d▲ 3.3% 1w▲ 4.7% 1m
0.1% spread
13%
4
Will the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be 4.25% at the end of 2026?▼ 3.8% 1d▼ 7.4% 1w▲ 0.9% 1m
0.6% spread
13%
5
Will the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be ≥ 4.5% at the end of 2026?▼ 1.3% 1d▲ 0.5% 1w▲ 2.0% 1m
0.1% spread
5%
6
Will the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be 3.25% at the end of 2026?▼ 0.1% 1d▼ 0.1% 1w▼ 1.2% 1m
0.1% spread
2%
7
Will the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be 3.0% at the end of 2026?▼ 1.1% 1m
0.1% spread
2%
8
Will the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be ≤1.0% at the end of 2026?▲ 0.4% 1d▲ 0.4% 1w▲ 0.4% 1m
0.7% spread
1%
9
Will the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be 2.75% at the end of 2026?▲ 0.1% 1d▲ 0.1% 1w▼ 0.1% 1m
0.1% spread
1%
10
Will the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be 1.5% at the end of 2026?▲ 0.1% 1d▲ 0.1% 1w▲ 0.4% 1m
0.1% spread
1%
11
Will the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be 2.5% at the end of 2026?▲ 0.1% 1d▲ 0.1% 1w
0.1% spread
1%
12
Will the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be 2.25% at the end of 2026?▼ 0.1% 1d▲ 0.1% 1m
0.1% spread
1%
13
Will the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be 1.25% at the end of 2026?▼ 0.1% 1m
0.1% spread
1%
14
Will the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be 2.0% at the end of 2026?▲ 0.1% 1d▲ 0.1% 1w▲ 0.2% 1m
0.1% spread
1%
15
Will the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be 1.75% at the end of 2026?▼ 0.1% 1d
Recent hawkish updates to the FOMC's Summary of Economic Projections have anchored trader sentiment around the 3.75-4.0% range for the federal funds rate at year-end 2026. The June 17 dot plot lifted the median endpoint to 3.8% from 3.4% in March, with nine participants now seeing at least one hike this year amid May CPI inflation accelerating to 4.2% year-over-year—driven largely by energy costs …
Rules summary
The FED rate is defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal fund range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the upper bound of the Federal Reserve’s target federal funds range after the December 2026 Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting, currently scheduled for December 8-9, 2026.
This market may resolve immediately after the statement for the FOMC’s December meeting, with relevant information about the FOMC’s decision on the target federal funds range,…
