What are the current odds for: What will the Fed rate be at the end of 2026?

According to OpenFlow's prediction market aggregator, the current implied probability is 21% as of 2026-08-30. Total volume on this market is $6.8M. This market resolves on December 9, 2026.

How does OpenFlow aggregate prediction market odds?

OpenFlow aggregates live order books across on-chain prediction market venues, applies cross-venue price improvement, and displays unified Yes/No implied probabilities. Users trade on their own exchange — OpenFlow routes fills and settles exchange-to-exchange via USDC on Solana.

What will the Fed rate be at the end of 2026?. Current implied probability: 21% yes. Total volume: $6.8M. Resolves December 9, 2026. Live odds aggregated from Polymarket and Kalshi on OpenFlow.

Fed RatesEconomic PolicyFedPolitics

What will the Fed rate be at the end of 2026?

Opens Jan 12, 2026Resolves Dec 9, 2026

Total volume

$6.8M

24h volume

$3K

Liquidity

$266K

Open interest

$37K

Resolves

Dec 9, 2026

Comments

7d volume

$11K

30d volume

$33K

1yr volume

$2.1M

Competitive

99.0%

Odds history

#OutcomeChance

Will the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be 4.0% at the end of 2026?▼ 0.2% 1d▲ 7.4% 1w▲ 9.2% 1m

6.6% spread

39%

Will the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be 3.75% at the end of 2026?▼ 0.6% 1d▼ 15.3% 1w▼ 6.3% 1m

0.1% spread

29%

Will the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be 4.25% at the end of 2026?▼ 1.5% 1d▲ 5.5% 1w▲ 0.6% 1m

0.1% spread

21%

Will the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be 3.5% at the end of 2026?▲ 0.4% 1d▲ 0.4% 1w▼ 4.9% 1m

1.2% spread

Will the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be ≥ 4.5% at the end of 2026?▲ 0.1% 1d▲ 0.1% 1w▼ 0.8% 1m

0.6% spread

Will the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be 3.25% at the end of 2026?▲ 0.1% 1d▼ 0.2% 1w▼ 0.9% 1m

0.1% spread

Will the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be 2.75% at the end of 2026?▼ 0.1% 1d▼ 0.1% 1w▼ 0.2% 1m

0.3% spread

Will the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be ≤1.0% at the end of 2026?▲ 0.1% 1d▲ 0.1% 1w▲ 0.1% 1m

0.3% spread

Will the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be 2.5% at the end of 2026?▼ 0.1% 1d▼ 0.1% 1w▼ 0.1% 1m

0.2% spread

Will the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be 1.25% at the end of 2026?▼ 0.1% 1d▼ 0.1% 1m

0.2% spread

Will the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be 3.0% at the end of 2026?▼ 0.8% 1w▼ 1.1% 1m

0.1% spread

Will the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be 1.5% at the end of 2026?▼ 0.2% 1m

0.1% spread

Will the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be 2.25% at the end of 2026?▼ 0.1% 1m

0.2% spread

Will the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be 2.0% at the end of 2026?▼ 0.1% 1w▼ 0.1% 1m

0.1% spread

Will the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be 1.75% at the end of 2026?▼ 0.2% 1w▼ 0.2% 1m

0.1% spread

Min order: 5 USDCTick: 0.001Maker rewards ≥ 20 USDCMax spread: 3.5%

Order Book4.25%

Mid 21.0¢

PriceContractsTotal

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Price change▼ 1.5% 1d▲ 5.5% 1w▲ 0.6% 1m

📊 Market context

**Trader consensus on the federal funds rate at year-end 2026 centers on 3.75–4.25 percent, with 4.0 percent holding the highest implied probability.** Recent FOMC decisions, including the July hold at 3.50–3.75 percent amid three dissents favoring a hike, reflect caution over elevated PCE inflation near 3.7 percent year-over-year, driven by supply disruptions and higher energy prices tied to geop…

Rules summary

The FED rate is defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal fund range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings. This market will resolve according to the upper bound of the Federal Reserve’s target federal funds range after the December 2026 Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting, currently scheduled for December 8-9, 2026. This market may resolve immediately after the statement for the FOMC’s December meeting, with relevant information about the FOMC’s decision on the target federal funds range,…