OpenFlowUS military action against Cuba by...?. Current implied probability: 0% yes. Total volume: $7.4M. Resolves January 1, 2027. Live odds aggregated from Polymarket and Kalshi on OpenFlow.
US military action against Cuba by...?
US military planning and contingency briefings for Cuba have advanced since the January 2026 operation against Venezuela’s Maduro, which killed Cuban personnel and prompted President Trump to signal Havana as a follow-on target. The administration has reimposed terrorism designations, expanded sanctions blocking fuel deliveries, and issued State Department reports alleging Cuban espionage and Chin…
Rules summary
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a US-initiated drone, missile, or air strike on the soil of Cuba is announced or credibly reported to have occurred by the listed date ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including FPV and ATGM strikes as well as cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by any United States operatives, including military forces, intelligence agencies, or other U.S. government operatives, that physically impact ground territory within the listed coun…