OpenFlowUS obtains Iranian enriched uranium by...?. Current implied probability: 0% yes. Total volume: $29.2M. Resolves January 1, 2027. Live odds aggregated from Polymarket and Kalshi on OpenFlow.
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by...?
Recent US-Iran negotiations following the June 2026 memorandum of understanding center on disposition of Iran's enriched uranium stockpile, with the agreement calling for IAEA-supervised down-blending on site as a minimum outcome while US officials have described the framework as leading to eventual US custody or removal. Airstrikes in 2025 damaged Iranian facilities, leaving much of the roughly 4…
Rules summary
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the US government or military officially announces or confirms that it has gained possession of any quantity of enriched uranium previously controlled by Iran by May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. “Possession” means that the United States has actual physical custody or control of the enriched uranium, whether held within U.S. territory or elsewhere. Announcements of deals, agreements, commitments, or plans under which the United States would acquire possession of Iranian enriched uranium at a later time will not qualify…