OpenFlowUS-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by…?. Current implied probability: 0% yes. Total volume: $16.8M. Resolves January 1, 2027. Live odds aggregated from Polymarket and Kalshi on OpenFlow.
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by…?
Recent U.S.-Iran nuclear talks remain stalled following the June 17, 2026 Islamabad Memorandum of Understanding, which launched a 60-day window—now expired—for converting a ceasefire framework into a final accord on enrichment limits, IAEA inspections of sites including Natanz and Fordow, down-blending of highly enriched uranium stockpiles, sanctions relief, and Strait of Hormuz access. Disagreeme…
Rules summary
On June 14, 2026, the United States and Iran announced a written diplomatic agreement, including a 60-day extendable period in which both countries committed to negotiate toward a “final deal” regarding Iran’s nuclear program and other topics. This market resolves to “Yes” if a qualifying written diplomatic instrument between the United States and Iran has been mutually signed or adopted by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market resolves to “No.” Unless the written instrument is formally adopted without signature as described below, the instrument must be signed by both the …