US-Iran ceasefire continues through...?

The June 17, 2026, 14-point US-Iran Memorandum of Understanding established a 60-day window for talks on permanently ending hostilities that began in February, reopening the Strait of Hormuz, and addressing nuclear and sanctions issues. That interim framework collapsed amid mutual violations, including late-June strikes around Hormuz and US bases, leading President Trump to declare it “over” by ea…

This market will resolve to “No” if the United States takes a qualifying military action against Iran by the specified date, 11:59 PM Iran Standard Time. Otherwise this market will resolve to “Yes.” A qualifying military action refers to an air strike or a surface-to-surface missile strike, initiated by the United States, that directly impacts Iran. An air strike includes bombs, air-to-surface missiles, and air-launched drones. A surface-to-surface missile strike includes one-way attack drones and surface-to-surface missiles such as cruise or ballistic missiles. The following actions do not …