Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 30?. Current implied probability: 7% yes. Total volume: $4.7M. Resolves September 30, 2026. Live odds aggregated from Polymarket and Kalshi on OpenFlow.
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 30?
Ongoing US-Iran tensions and a sustained naval blockade continue to suppress commercial traffic through the Strait of Hormuz to single-digit daily transits—well below the pre-crisis average of over 100 vessels—driving the 93.5% market-implied probability that flows will not normalize by September 30. Recent attacks on tankers, stalled ceasefire talks, and explicit US statements about indefinite ec…
Rules summary
This market will resolve to “Yes” if IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz equal to or above 60 for any date between market creation and September 30, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. Daily transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered. This market will resolve as soon as IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls equal to or above the specified level, or once data has been pu…